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National Values and Nation-Building – Out of Sync Concepts?

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There have been several papers lately on issues such as governance, democracy, national values, citizenship, and related topics, mostly analyzing the disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Some astute observers have noted that we have similar concerns in the United States given the fault lines that became more obvious as a result of the 2016 presidential elections. The common thread is that political societies are constantly evolving, and technology is providing the means to accelerate and mobilize forces for change that are challenging how people are governed. The notion of “consent of the governed” is altering notions of the relationship between a government and the people.

In this blog, I want to look at “civic education,” the process by which citizens become acculturated to a country’s values and its political system. 

I first became conscious of the importance of civic education in my eighth grade “civics” class, as it was then called, which looked at the United States and how it pursued its interests at home and abroad. There was no discussion about the correctness of the national values on which these interests were based. It was assumed that our values were the best model for any country to emulate. This experience focused my interest on wanting to make the US better understood in the world by engaging in programs that facilitated cross-cultural dialogue. As a son of immigrants, the US for our family was and still is something unique and full of promise. That hasn’t changed in the following 50+ years, and neither has the need for America having an open discussion about its priorities and interests.

Definitions of civic education have common elements. A recent paper by CSIS says “Civic education in schools and beyond teaches citizens how to vote, what their community needs are and what values it holds, and what the social compact between elected officials and their constituents means in practical terms.” A study of civic education in the Arab world conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace listed these characteristics, “This education for citizenship has three main components: knowledge of civic concepts, systems, and processes of civic life, including education for human rights and democracy; skills of civic participation; and students’ general disposition, including a sense of belonging to the state and shared values and ethics.”

The Arab Spring has challenged the notions of citizenship from a top-down perspective as young people and others feeling marginalized threw down the gauntlet to redefine their country’s social contract between the government and citizens, demanding accountability, economic opportunity, transparency, and political inclusion. How this still rings true today, with even more urgency, is underscored in a joint paper from the Atlantic Council and Brookings Institution as part of the Middle East Strategy Taskforce series. The paper, “Real security: Governance and stability in the Arab world,” argued, among other points, that governance was in the process of being redefined and the core issue was one of restoring social trust through dialogue and resolving conflicts at all levels.

One of the key elements raised by several of the panelists is that the process of reconstructing the social contract to achieve sustainable governance is a decentralized, bottom up approach based on local sensibilities and priorities. This means investing in civil society, civic education, and building out the political space for decision-making by local officials.

There are programs that can be helpful. NGOs such as Civitas and Street Law, enable young people and communities to proactively learn how democracy works, the roles of government and citizen, major influences shaping a country’s civic values, and many other topics. The CSIS article is clear that programs that work in one country will not necessarily work in another – an important caveat for those who think that democracy and governance programs can be implemented without thorough consideration of local sensibilities.

It also notes that what is critical in states going through transitions, whether through elections or post-conflict, is “rebuilding trust in the government and educating the voter base on what to expect…Civic education combats disillusionment among voters and opens a dialogue between government officials and citizens.” The importance of building trust with youth cannot be overstated, as they have “unprecedented access to information” but very low rates of participation in their countries’ political space, which is monopolized by traditional players.

Easy to be deceived by data. fairobserver.com

Easy to be deceived by data.
fairobserver.com

The National Democratic Institute recently published a blog on the potential negative impact of social media on democracy. It builds on this point with the observation that “Social media and the Internet have had a drastic effect on the surprise results of yesterday’s election in the United States, driving the spread of information—and misinformation—at times bringing voters together and, perhaps more often, pushing them apart….It’s important to recognize that this is not a uniquely American trend.” A study  across 26 countries indicates that more than half of Internet users use social media as a primary source of news, and more than 25% call it their main news source. Percentages may be even higher in developing countries with high Internet penetration.

The long-term challenge is to protect the government-citizen interaction from malicious and misleading attacks from external and internal foes. As NDI points out “Creating and protecting safe platforms on the web for genuine political discourse will require collaboration among a host of actors. Governments, technology companies, media outlets, the academic community and organizations around the world must come together to develop policies and practices to aid civil society and citizens in addressing this problem, and build norms and standards for democratic governments to support an open Internet.”

Protecting this valuable suite of tools for promoting democratic values in the coming years will require significant efforts to shield political discourse from those who would damage a country’s transition to a stronger national consensus on its key values. The need for inclusive dialog for countries in transition can have no better starting point than a refresher course on a country’s national values and social contract.

 

Large image:Flickr.com

Can Anything be Done to Push Broad-based Economic Growth in North Africa?

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After more than three years, what we’ve learned about increasing jobs and growth

Now that the “Arab Spring” has become an integral part of any analysis of the future of the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region, it is worthwhile to see what we are learning about two core issues raised during the demonstrations – increasing youth employment and economic growth. While governments have worked with international agencies and donors to launch or revise programs addressing these concerns, and the related issues of governance and transparency, three challenges persist: scalability – what to do to make small-scale programs succeed when greatly expanded; sustainability – how to make the programs cost effective so that funding costs do not limit the utility and shelf-life of the efforts; and inclusiveness – how to impact beneficiaries in the broadest possible demographics of gender, ethnicity, age, and education.

Meeting of Maghreb Employers Union

Government, Donors, Private Sector partners for growth

Morocco is a good example of the challenges faced by policy makers and intermediaries who manage the programs. It has always had technical and vocational programs for young people, and the government has been working for the past two years to include other key inputs, such as market needs to shape skills training and career support for graduates to help them find jobs. So by the end of 2014, Morocco will roll out new and improved programs that aim to close the gap between skilled workers and job opportunities. With an overall target of 60,000 jobs for graduates per year, the Minister of Employment Abdeslam Seddiki noted that as of 2016, some 10,000 unemployed people will benefit from these specific programs in addition to jobs generated by other agencies, international donors, and the private sector.

USAID, the World Bank, various EU agencies, and others are funding and running programs in Morocco dealing with youth employment. There is concern that more needs to be done to ensure collaboration among the donors to maximize the impact and lessons learned. If a stable, economically active country such as Morocco faces problems with ensuring consistent, cooperative, measureable efforts for job creation, others in the region that are less stable are in much more difficult situations.

A Different Formula

A sacred cow that is coming under scrutiny is microfinance. It is no surprise that programs in limited environments, such as microfinance schemes in poorer urban communities and rural areas are an attractive first alternative. The common wisdom is that if a program just provides loans and oversight, people, especially women, will find ways to use loans

Promoting the growth of the informal economy can be facilitated by cash transfers

Promoting the growth of the informal economy can be facilitated by cash transfers

productively. But a growing body of research shows that “it ain’t necessarily so.” So much of the success of microfinance loans depends on the metrics of success. Repayment rates have long been the staple metric. Yet a number of recent convincing studies using rate of expansion of existing business activities and levels of beneficiary consumption as indicators show the limitations of microfinance programs, especially when they are introduced across more populated and economically diverse locations.

In a recent intriguing article in Foreign Affairs, the authors review several studies of the option of cash grants instead of microfinance loans. Some general conclusions are that recipients have more insights regarding how to expand their business and acquire the needed skills than external agencies. This is particularly relevant as there is a prevailing perception that the informal economy, where most of these recipients work, is “bad” because it deprives a country of a significant portion of the population’s contribution to GDP. The authors report that “many of the poor are working below their potential because they lack the capital, credit, or insurance products necessary to grow their businesses. In the absence of financial services, which can take decades to develop, cash can fill the gap.”

While they recognize that cash grants are not appropriate or effective in every case, “the evidence is stacking up faster in favor of cash than it is for a lot of the alternatives, and direct cash transfers deserve to shed their reputation of being eccentric.” If one goes further and links the impact of better and more effective assistance programs with the dynamic role played by the informal sector in terms of basic business experience, then the value of utilizing rather than constraining this human energy becomes apparent. In a recent video released by the Initiative for Global Development (IGD), Austin Okere, Founder/CEO of Computer Warehouse Group made the point quite emphatically. He said that there are 17.7 million companies in the informal economy in sub-Saharan Africa. If each added just one employee, they would create more jobs than the African governments combinedare able to generate.

Hernando De Soto addresses MENA growth

Hernando De Soto addresses MENA growth

A similar effort is underway in Egypt, where the Sisi government is trying to make good on its economic development promises. They have recruited famed economist Hernando de Soto, who long ago studied property rights in Egypt and was consulted by both the Mubarak and Morsi governments for advice as to how to free up Egypt’s moribund economy. His answer was quite simple, “This is where most of the country’s resources that can give you…the high growth rates are…it’s the informal economy.” Rather than try to constrain its vitality through more regulation, de Soto recommends an extensive plan to integrate the informal economy into the economic system by reforms and incentives to drive economic growth. The bottom line, as in this proposed initiative and the others, is to develop strategies that generate large-scale employment and robust and sustained inclusive economic growth.

 

Mobilizing Human Capital

The paths to linking effective strategies for growth and employment are still unclear. A major effort is underway at the Brookings Institution, with partners in sub-Saharan Africa, to assess programs addressing youth unemployment to gauge effectiveness and lessons learned. So far, the studies indicate far more about lessons learned than what works under a variety of conditions. What’s critical to the studies is that they are done on a country-by-country basis by local NGOs, thus providing vital first-hand data and insights that might not be obvious to outsiders.

The authors are releasing the studies individually so that researchers can do both country-specific and comparative analyses. “A number of lessons can be drawn from these country-focused studies,” they point out. First of all, know your beneficiaries, their backgrounds, demographics, social indicators, past and current experience in the informal and formal sectors, relevance of ethnicity or minority status, motivational profiles, and educational backgrounds.

Secondly, there is data that supports the effectiveness of government-sponsored vouchers and subsidies when they allow individuals to make choices that reflect their ambitions. This is particularly relevant to those who have experience in the informal economy and have a strong entrepreneurial sense of what is needed to expand and grow their business. Finally, they stress the importance of good data, not just focusing on unemployment rates, but digging deeper into categories of unemployment, quality of available jobs, and mismatches between jobs and potential employees.

Good Decisions Require Reliable Information and Critical Insight

While these studies focus on sub-Saharan Africa, the same types of challenges exist in the Maghreb, and the same in-depth

Fez - combining the best of old and new

Fez – combining the best of old and new

assessments are needed to understand not only what works and what doesn’t but why. A good starting point for this undertaking is to parse the recently released report on the impact of the first National Initiative for Human Development campaign in Morocco. The report categorizes the results of this most important effort to lift people out of poverty through introducing sustainable development projects. In his most recent Throne Day speech, King Mohammed VI tasked the Economic, Social and Environmental Council to look at the human development indicators in the country for the past five years and come up with recommendations to ensure equitable growth that supports the quality of Morocco’s “intangible capital.” It is this integration of political will, well-developed research, strategic thinking, and close attention to all stakeholders that will provide the clearest insights and policies for advancing growth and employment throughout Africa.

How does Morocco Measure up to the Challenge of Defining ‘Citizenship?

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UN Study Opens Debate on Citizenship Post-Arab Spring

In a multi-year study of the impact of the Arab Spring on democracy, social development, civic activism, and governance, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) released “The Promises of Spring – Citizenship and Civic Engagement in Democratic Transitions” in mid-2013. The report team was led by Maha Yahya, a senior associate at Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. She recently visited Washington, DC where she discussed the trends emerging from the study to date.

ESCWA Report Cover

ESCWA Report on Citizenship after Arab Spring

As could be expected, most of the analysis and commentary focused on Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, with some references to Lebanon and Syria. This is not surprising, but I believe that a broader perspective would be helpful to adequately represent varying perceptions of citizenship, as well as to understand what factors impact the debate about citizenship and deeper issues of equality, justice, and dignity. Morocco’s experience, before, during, and after the Arab Spring, is instructive.

Demise of the Traditional Social Contract

Much has been written about the demise of the social contract whereby citizens of a country muted their political activism in return for their government’s guarantee of economic security and political stability. The study provides a useful overview of the weakening of social contracts in the Arab world, although there is a bit too much emphasis, in my opinion, on the impact of the global financial community in promoting structural changes. It asserts that “a new social contract implies rethinking past and current approaches to socioeconomic development so as to address existing inequities and ensure social justice.”

To that end, the study looks to new constitutions that define the evolving relationship between state and citizens, which ideally should address: “civic freedoms, including the right to assembly; the rights of women and minority groups; and the socioeconomic and developmental rights of citizens as part of a broader approach to social justice.” As we have seen in countries affected by the Arab Spring, constitutional birthing processes are not without contention. And it is the constitutions, subject to multiple interpretations, which embody many of the “new” dimensions of the emerging social contracts. The ESCWA report stresses that even though there have been many setbacks to participatory democracy in countries affected by the Arab Spring, the empowerment of citizens has not been derailed as a central feature of emerging people power.

It is ironic that Arab countries, which strongly emphasize consensus on major issues, often find that in short supply when it comes to redefining the political process in the post-Arab Spring environment. In fact, the redefining process is not only about power-sharing and dignity, but core practices that embody public affairs – the engagement of stakeholders in the political system. The study notes that “active civic engagement by Arab citizens is one through which they would actually be seeking to reinvent themselves and their societies.” Thus, it goes beyond comparing models of democracy and political organization to focus on the values of citizenship as proactive forces behind political participation.

Quite instructively, the ESCWA report notes that “…the historical, political and social context of different countries matters…each country has its own dynamic. It evolves according to the specifications of the societal fabric as well as with policy or tactical changes, where those are made by the state or by civil society activists.” It is in this framework of citizenship, constitutional reform, and public space that Morocco’s progress should be measured.

Citizenship, Participation, and Challenges to Progress in Morocco

In evaluating why conditions of political exclusion and economic marginalization prevalent in the Arab world did not explode before Mohamed Bouazizi’s death in Tunisia in December 2010, the report concludes that “multiple political, economic, social, and cultural injustices and exclusions that Arab citizens were subjected to for decades, and the absence of meaningful venues to voice grievances were among the central catalysts…” In Morocco, opening of public space can be traced to 1998, when King Hassan II, recognizing that stability required greater power-sharing, took two important steps: naming the head of the opposition coalition as Prime Minister, and permitting the large scale growth of hundreds of civil society organizations.

His son, the current King Mohammed VI, was quick to build on these openings, and indeed, the role of “citizen” has been a constant theme of his reign, both as a prod to the political parties to become more mature and develop as vehicles for change, and as a recognition that civil society has an enormous role to play in shaping the country’s growth. As MAP reported in 2013, this emphasis is clear in the King’s speech on the 38th anniversary of Morocco’s Green March.

“Our aim is to see the Moroccan citizen properly honored, endowed with the attributes of full-fledged citizenship,” he said. “It is in this spirit that we have undertaken a series of profound reforms and major projects,” including the establishment of national institutions and regional bodies for the protection and promotion of human rights that are “known for their independence and credibility.” He also said that no country accepts being “subjected to behavior that is harmful to their security and stability, especially as violence, subversion and intimidation of citizens are incompatible with human rights, and the exercise of freedom can only be done in compliance with the law.

The King’s constitutional commission was instrumental in including many references to the rights of citizens in the 2011 constitution, a theme he has reinforced before and after Morocco’s experience during the Arab Spring. In April 2014 he said:

“To me, all Moroccans are equal. I make no distinction, be it on the basis of social status or affiliation. As far as I am concerned, there is no difference between a bank manager and a person who is unemployed, between a pilot, a farmer and a minister. They all are citizens with the same rights and the same obligations.”

When the King argues that “The main goal of economic growth remains the achievement of social justice, which is the bedrock of social cohesion, ” he echoes the centrality of social justice that is a key touchstone of the ESCWA.

Understanding that power-sharing and devolution of power are requisites for true civic participation, the King promotes regionalization to enable Moroccans to have greater control over their lives. Yet he is not naïve about the challenges involved in creating a new civic culture in a society that is in transition to decentralized governance and strong civic activism. In 2012, in his annual Green March speech he remarked:

Morocco's Parliament

Morocco’s Parliament

“In this regard, I call upon stakeholders and officials in all institutions to be worthy of the trust placed in them. In addition to the executive and judicial branches, I call upon elected institutions, at all levels, to comply fully and at all times with the new concept of authority. Elected officials must serve the citizens and be worthy of their trust, avoiding any personal or narrow-minded considerations.”

While pundits may challenge the pace at which Morocco is making progress, it is hard to minimize the salutatory role that the King, greatly respected throughout the country, is playing in a peaceful transition to participatory democracy. It is instructive, in looking at the ESCWA report’s data regarding economic disruptions, that among the non-oil exporters, only Morocco did not suffer large-scale negative consequences from the Arab Spring. This is another indicator of the international and domestic support that Morocco’s reform process, started more than 15 years ago, enjoys.

In its early conclusions, the ESCWA report calls for:

“…rethinking the current development agenda [with] one that considers the achievement of social justice based on the principles of equitable citizenship rights a fundamental pillar for maintaining social cohesion and consolidating democracies in Arab countries.”

Morocco’s commitment to full citizenship for all Moroccans is enshrined in its Constitution and the implementation legislation coming from the Parliament. Many challenges to enabling progress and reform remain. Many are being tackled through consensus-building among multiple stakeholders – which is a product of Morocco’s recognition that progress and democracy grow from practice and capacity-building that concretely support its citizens’ aspirations.

Middle East economic reform requires robust and constructive citizen participation

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A great deal of hand wringing goes on as bad news continues to drown out progress in the transitions going on in the Middle East and North Africa. From Egypt and Syria to Libya and Yemen, nay-sayers and pundits readily point out that there are few short-term solutions that don’t require some pain in the process of moving forward. As national identities crumble under the assault of religious and partisan appeals, it is problematic to come up with short-term remedies that don’t have long-term consequences for the political and economic health of the countries.

It seems to me that, aside from Tunisia at the best of times, which is not often enough, there is a failure by governments in transition to sustain effective messaging that people can understand on how the government is going to concretely tackle unemployment and corruption. Blaming the IMF for subsidy reforms is not a credible strategy for laying the groundwork for other steps that must be taken to reduce public debt incurred as a result of inflated bureaucracies, inefficient labor regulations, and insufficient investment capital available for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Even Morocco’s parliament is encountering problems passing needed reforms to reduce expenditures and stimulate sustainable economic growth.

The challenges in the Maghreb are enormous, and yet citizens are rarely being mobilized to take part in economic development. Rather, they are pulled in different directions by political forces more concerned with scoring points and securing power than contributing to a way forward that is balanced, equitable, and contributes to necessary long-term changes.

Considering the options

Outside organizations are working in the MENA to provide mechanisms to bridge the messaging gap between governments and citizens. The George C. Marshall Foundation in cooperation with the Stimson Center and L’Insitut Arabe des Chefs d’Enterprises recently held a conference in Tunis that “brought together business people, academicians, policy planners and other thought leaders for a day and a half discussion on regional economic integration in the Maghreb…” The purpose of the conference was to determine how the action principles behind the success of the Marshall Plan in rebuilding Europe “might best be applied to contemporary situations where economic reconstruction or mass relief is needed.” One of its principal tenets seemed quite relevant to my thinking about the challenge of promoting both top-down and grassroots support for economic reform, “Political leadership and elements of self-sacrifice and determination are essential to the success of aid programs.”

In the US, Bill Clinton’s first presidential campaign, built around the message “the economy, stupid,” illustrated how critical it is to capture the public’s imagination and involvement in a dialogue about progress that has consequences beyond slogans. Similarly, the pressures of trying to reverse decades of economic and political mismanagement have resulted in a credibility barrier, especially for the transitional governments in Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt. As is evident from the competing demonstrations in those countries, evolving a consensus on key solutions without some parties feeling marginalized is an overwhelming challenge at times.

 Reaching the people

A key lesson in “participatory democracy” that seems to have emerged from the trials of the transitional governments is that the process of engaging citizens effectively in participatory and respectful politics is daunting under the best of circumstances. Their previous experiences with the former governments in Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt in particular have not given people a sense of national citizenship that transcends more particular allegiances. To help address this “communications gap,” the U.S.-Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) has launched a series of civic engagement programs in the Maghreb to enable youth, civil society, and advocacy organizations to more effectively engage in the political process.

The World Bank Institute (WBI) along with the World Bank Middle East and North Africa (MENA) recently “brought together government officials and civil society practitioners from Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia to discuss how citizen engagement can contribute to more informed policies; how to develop codes of practice for public consultations; and how to use online tools to facilitate consultations.” The program aims to enable governments to “make informed decisions while creating public trust” by ensuring that the voices of those most impacted by the policy have been heard and addressed. Moreover, the program supports an inclusive process to ensure that the right players are involved, recognizing that public consultations can be critical “since the government may not have all the solutions at hand.”

This program complements others in the region such as the National Dialogue on Civil Society in Morocco focusing on how more inclusive and transparent communications between governments and citizens can reduce conflict and promote consensus around key development and governance issues. An essential element is training trainers in both government agencies and NGOs on the principles of public consultations as a tool for civic engagement.

While these efforts may be small steps in terms of bringing governments and citizens together, they are critical for directing “street” energy into advocacy tools using social media and other outreach technology and e-government programs to provide better access for people and greater knowledge and awareness for public officials. For the international donor community, there is a lesson here from the Marshall Foundation’s tenets: “Any successful aid program must be driven by the country and not imposed by outside countries or institutions.” When people speak as part of a respectful dialogue and government listens and acts to credibly engage its citizens, the street will return to being a thoroughfare rather than an avenue of protest and disorder.

Crossing the divide: young Moroccans reaching for the future

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If Moroccans were any kinder, I would be buying an apartment in this North African nation tomorrow – the only challenge being where! Their multilingual skills were prominently displayed for the past 10 days as I struggled in French, Arabic, and English to get to know Moroccans under 40, many under 30, who are part of the new wave of university graduates and Moroccans returning from abroad committed to building the future Morocco. It was more than invigorating to be talking with young people the age of my children, having conversations that were incisive, insightful, and clear-eyed about the opportunities in their country. They were open and willing to discuss a range of issues related to their aspirations and motivation. As my sentences tumbled out in broken bits of languages, they were immediately in tune with both the intent and the context of my remarks and questions, displaying a sense of humor and desire to understand and to be understood.

These are trying times in Morocco. Against a backdrop of the drama of rifts in the governing political coalition, a large number of regional and international conferences in Morocco are focusing on its place in the global market. There is a growing appreciation that business as usual, whether that means speaking French and selling into the EU or maintaining rigid labor and business hierarchies, is not sufficient. Foreign direct investment continues to grow incrementally, moving beyond real estate and tourism into manufacturing sectors that rely on the improving infrastructure and competitive salaries that Morocco provides. The renewable energy sector, including wind and solar power, is broadening its scope of activities from north to south, requiring even more investment in transportation, power, and broadband/IT services. Most importantly, all of these projects provide opportunities to engage Moroccans who have the talent and energy to acquire or develop skills needed in the global market.

As I spoke with the young people about what skills or attitudes would help Moroccans meet future challenges, the words I heard most often were innovation, creativity, breaking barriers, adaptation, caring, and courage. There is a tension, mirroring young people globally, when they talk about the older elites and networks that they believe limit their prospects for growth. Their impatience and sense of entitlement echoes US graduates whose expectations are undergoing shock therapy in today’s jobs marketplace. As these rising Moroccan stars re-examine their professional aspirations, I detect in many of them a more holistic style in approaching job opportunities. Of course salaries are the first priority but there was a very strong emphasis on the processes and environments they value.

It was surprising that courage came up so often, and for them it has at least two elements. The first is having the confidence to take initiatives, make suggestions, and address issues that in the past had been the purview of only those higher up the workplace food chain. They felt that the support of their peers and managers is the key to building this confidence. The second, closely aligned dimension is risk-taking – feeling secure enough that trial and error is an option because it promotes learning, innovation, and team building. Most felt that risk-taking is valued more inside international companies than Moroccan firms, which often are reluctant to suggest out-of-the-box alternative solutions to their customers. I found this perception was especially strong among those who had worked/studied abroad and experienced the benefits of a more collaborative and creative work milieu. One of the pleasant surprises I encountered in the more than two dozen interviews I conducted is the pride that older (over 40) Moroccan managers have in young people. While counseling that they should be patient and acquire more experience, these managers appreciate the dynamic and intense work styles of their younger teammates. This was quite interesting as at least half of the group is Moroccan women under 35.

I spent a solid ten days in Casablanca building new ties to Morocco and renewing past friendships. While the confidence of the Moroccans with whom I spoke is tempered by the barriers they encounter, there is an essential conviction running through all of them that Morocco can make the needed changes to compete globally. And they are very excited and motivated about being part of that change.

From winning to working: challenges of moving beyond the Arab uprisings

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I must admit that sometimes I am a bit confused by how some very good people frame their analyses of MENA issues. A recent case in point is a blog by Frederic Hof, one of my favorite writers on the Levant. He writes that the major question for the Arabs is “what will follow the Ottoman system as the true source of political legitimacy? The emerging answer is that for governments to be legitimate, they must ultimately derive their powers from the consent of the governed. This, in my view, is the meaning of the Arab Spring.”

Well, historical antecedents aside…that is a useful, as yet un-validated, position. He goes on to write, “Since the downfall of the four hundred-year empire only ninety years ago, Arabs have struggled to find the location of the stabilizing political legitimacy that once resided in the system of the Sultan-Caliph. Legitimacy has nothing to do with whether people approve or disapprove of the performance of a particular leader or government. It has everything to do with the right of a government to govern, whether it does so well or poorly. It is the system that is important; not the person.”

To speak of the Ottoman system or any of its predecessors as having the “right” to govern the Arab lands any more than other colonial powers turns history a bit on its head. However, his point that “it is the system that is important” is a hypothesis worth testing under the current tempest of transitions in the MENA region.

Perhaps the first consideration is where political legitimacy resides. Since the only clear example of retained legitimacy in North Africa after the Arab uprisings is Morocco, which was not ruled by the Ottomans and certainly did not cede legitimacy to the French and Spanish occupations, the legitimacy question is more applicable to Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. None of these countries yet has a constitution as the basis for governing, and so the jury is still out on the “system” of governance. In the contestation between Islamic parties and their “secular” counterparts, it is unclear where the mantle of leadership will be awarded by “the consent of the governed.” Those who are not fans of the Islamic government in Egypt should as well be concerned about the “tyranny of the majority” from the left or the right.

In a recent Viewpoints paper produced by the Wilson Center, Marina Ottaway analyzes the steps secular parties can take to be more competitive in Tunisia and Egypt. Her central theme is that “the secular opposition…has been unable to develop a clear message, build viable political parties, or overcome its fragmentation.” It is a telling assessment when combined with a recent remark by an Arab head of state visiting Washington, DC, who said that “there is no Arabic or Hebrew word for strategy,” focusing on the need for Arab countries to consult more seriously on complex issues such as Syria and the peace process.

While it may be that political leadership in these countries is still in flux, the bottom line, according to Ottaway is, “The transitions that started with the 2011 uprisings will not lead to a democratic outcome unless a better balance is established between Islamist and secular forces…The real issue is that democracy does not depend on the behavior of one party or faction, but on a pluralistic and balanced political spectrum. And that balance must be established in the electoral arena.” [emphasis added] And here is the challenge of history: How do societies wherein political, religious, ethnic, and socio-economic differences have been exploited for generations regard others as fellow seekers for justice and equality? How do elections, which historically have been engineered to satisfy narrowly defined constituencies, all at once become an expression of the will of the people, of “the consent of the governed?” How do issues of emerging political identities avoid being strapped with religious or personality-driven labels that stereotype their agendas before they are subject to the realities of the political marketplace of negotiation?

Ottaway offers several prescriptions to secular parties on how to capture the high ground in the political landscape: develop a clear message; develop an organization; and unite their leadership. She points out that the Islamic parties in Egypt and Tunisia have yet to articulate clear economic platforms that define their actions for governing. The secular parties “have also failed so far to suggest their own remedies in a way designed to gain broad support.” Let me suggest that perhaps this is an area where the Morocco experience may be helpful. The government’s economic plans are well articulated and targeted but have foundered in winning Parliamentary approval. At least the people know what they voted for, even if it has not yet been delivered.

Ottoway believes that the lack of cohesive secular political parties reflects, in many ways, the “social distance that separates the secular leadership from much of the population.” Again, when I look at Morocco, where the PJD and Istiqlal parties have maintained solid support among their members, they stand in contrast to less cohesive parties elsewhere. As Ottaway remarks, “….they need to decide that the non-glamorous task of building machines is worth the effort and they do not appear to have done so thus far.” This is a lesson across the Maghreb where public patience should not be taken for granted.

Finally, there is the issue of leadership, where “Individuals who in theory share the same ideals of a democratic country that protects human rights and individual freedoms, respects diversity, and takes its place among modern nations are showing little inclination to work together for the common goal.” It is counterintuitive for politicians, who seek the limelight to illuminate their positions, to defer to others and trust in coalition-building in which they are not prominently featured. Many people in the region have long lamented the lack of an Arab Nelson Mandela, but hand-wringing does not enlarge the capacity for thoughtful and effective leadership in the region.

As the Arab peoples embark on perhaps their first realistic opportunity in modern times to own their political legitimacy, the first step may be to actually build a consensus of the governed rather than proclaiming their differences.

Partners can make a difference in driving economic growth

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Over the past several weeks, I have been looking at media coverage of events and activities related to how Morocco is confronting its challenges in driving economic growth. One particular theme that merits more attention is how external partners, whether bilateral or multilateral, can play a significant role in enabling Morocco to maximize its reform efforts.

On March 18, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) held a panel on “Economic Turmoil in Arab Countries – Can Partners Help?” that raised several key points. First of all, the drive for sustainable development must be internally driven; otherwise the needed political will is absent. Without national leadership, the longer term efforts to reform are marginalized and politicized. Secondly, greater stability in the MENA region benefits donor countries and agencies by supporting an environment in which growing prosperity, jobs, and opportunities reduce conflict and promote greater cooperation within and among countries.

While it is too soon to make conclusive assessments of these partnership arrangements, details of recent programs provide insights into their priorities. The first example is a recent press release on projects funded by the World Bank in Morocco. The funding has two components. The first is a $160 million loan to improve the competitiveness of Moroccan companies. It includes simplifying the regulatory environment and strengthening the capacity of Moroccan agencies tasked with business and investment development. Interestingly, as reported in my blog last week, this follows on a European Bank for Reconstruction and Development trade facilitation funding agreement with BMCE bank in Morocco. The programs should be mutually supportive.

Simon Gray, the Maghreb Country Director for the World Bank, commented, “Morocco has engaged in a number of promising reforms to liberalize and promote investment in key sectors over the last decade. The impact of these reforms on growth and job creation will be further enhanced by addressing the remaining rigidities in the institutional and regulatory business environment especially as they pertain to small and medium enterprises.” The reforms include addressing government payment delays, bureaucratic red tape, unfair competition, and lack of predictability in implementing rules and regulations.

Also approved by the World Bank is a $6.44 million grant to help small farmers implement land and biodiversity conservation measures in targeted regions. An interesting component of this project is using animal feed generated from by-products from agri-food chains including olive oil, cactus, and argan. This is the latest project by the World Bank in support of the Plan Maroc Vert program, which targets doubling the added-value and jobs in the agricultural sector by 2020.

A Zawya article, “Strong macro drives Morocco’s investment appeal,” notes, “Morocco has emerged as the most stable North African country, after King Mohammad VI navigated through a tricky period during the Arab Spring. A new democratically elected government with powers has led to a relatively stable country compared to the painful transitions in North African peers Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.” It goes on to list hallmarks of EU-Morocco cooperation:

  • Morocco is the first North African state to embark on Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) with the European Union.
  • An EU-Morocco Association Agreement came into effect in 2000.
  • Negotiations for a new European Neighborhood Plan (ENP) for the period 2013-2017 were concluded in November 2012 and a formal adoption process is under way.
  • An agreement on liberalization of trade in agriculture came into force on October 1, 2012.
  • The guidelines for a new Fisheries Partnership Agreement were adopted by the EU in February 2012, and negotiations are ongoing.
  • Morocco remains the largest recipient of EU assistance in the ENP-south region with EUR 580.5 million earmarked for 2011-13 with a focus on social and economic development, environmental protection, and institutional support (i.e. justice and human rights).

A recent IMF report pointed out that higher economic growth, lower unemployment, better health and educational outcomes, better access to basic infrastructure, and a marked reduction in poverty rates are tangible evidence of Morocco’s progress in fostering inclusive growth. The only black mark is youth unemployment, which remains particularly high.

It is too soon to write the headlines for Morocco’s economic future, yet it is clear that providing a platform in support of solid political, social, and economic reforms is a key role for external partners. Targeted and results-focused assistance programs, developed through frank and constructive dialogue with recipient countries, are keys to achieving tangible outcomes that promote inclusive growth and enhance stability. In this period of budgetary constraints among all the partners, it is helpful for American taxpayers to know that the US is not alone in working hard to promote security and prosperity in the MENA region.

“Egypt: Challenges of Crafting Leadership in Foreign Affairs”

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The summer 2012 issue of the Cairo Review of Global Affairs, includes an article, “Egypt in the World,” by former Egyptian Ambassador to the US, Nabil Fahmy. He is clearly in the secular/modernist/democratic stream of Egyptian political discourse, and provides helpful insights to those who want to understand the Arab world beneath the stereotypes. His main theme focuses on the centrality of Egypt’s foreign policy in the region and the world, which he defines in three concentric circles. His observations flow from the assumption that “Now, in a region transformed by popular upheaval, Egypt has a chance to pick up the mantle and renew her place as a political and ideological wellspring for the Arab and North African Middle East.”

Well, I hope that the government of Egypt isn’t waiting for an invitation from surrounding countries to lead from in front or from behind. This notion of Egypt as the regional leader “… stems not only from the country’s demographic weight, geopolitical location, and military capability, but also from its historic and contemporary role as the heart of cultural and intellectual innovation in the Arab world.” With all respect to my friend and former mentor, I find the notion of Egypt as the resurrected leader of the MENA region a bit of a stretch given the transitions still in store within Egypt as well as the significant political and economic challenges in the region that make any leadership role problematic. This is even more apparent as Fahmy indicates, “… any new government must learn from the lessons of the past.”

Learning from the past or overturning the past? This was obviously written before Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi made waves at the Tehran conference of the Non-Aligned Movement—the first global vehicle for Nasser’s claim to regional leadership, and Morsi’s visit to the opening of the UN General Assembly, where he spelled out Egypt’s new foreign policy perspectives in a long New York Times interview. It is hard to conceive of a country, which may slide to a “collective caliphate,” as an emerging regional power that promotes democratic values when its own legitimizing political process is being sorely tested.

By this I mean that while Salafists call for the new caliphate, one can argue that Egypt must guard against a kind of “collective caliphate” where political and religious/moral leadership is held by a few who claim to speak for the many. We have already seen the problematic and counterproductive impact of Iranian foreign policy for US interests. Can we expect the same from Egypt?

Some more wisdom from Ambassador Fahmy succinctly summarizes the challenges: “Egypt should provide the seeds of freedom by supporting openness, transparency, and the rule of law throughout the Middle East, but the demand for and pace of reform must come from within states, not across their borders.” “…If domestic reality does not match the principled stand of our international proclamations, our newfound legitimacy will be unsustainable and or claim of leadership will fall on deaf ears.”

While I admire Egypt for its past contributions, the reality is that the Arab street has moved towards conflation with its Islamic identity and crossing that line has changed the tone and focus of what leadership means to “the people.” So as Egypt emerges from its transitions and proffers “her natural role as a leader in the Middle East and Africa,” will anyone take up the offer?

Emphasis on Youth and Women a major Pillar of the NAPEO Conference

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The presenters at this year’s PNB-NAPEO conference in Marrakech are impressive. Most speakers have demonstrated expertise in a variety of enterprises or are enablers of ingredients for building businesses and jobs: venture capital, training, angel investors, and entrepreneurs. Most of the achievers are from Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria, while the enablers are from the US–a heady mix of visionaries and realists intent on changing the landscape of economic growth in North Africa.

The theme was set on Tuesday in a “discussion” featuring former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright; Walter Isaacson, CEO of the Aspen Institute; Mostafa Terrab, CEO of OCP Group; moderated by Hisham Melhem, Washington Bureau Chief of Al-Arabiya, on the topic of “A New Paradigm: Public-Private Partnerships.”

Ms. Albright paid homage to the youth of the Arab Spring, recognizing that the events that transpired and the transitions following, despite the media hype, are very complicated and important shifts in region. She emphasized that empowering youth will take a while. Secretary Albright noted that political and economic development go together and that the new governments must deliver what people; and private-public partnerships are a means of facing common needs. For the youth, it is overwhelming a question of justice and dignity. She was quite passionate about empowering women to have opportunities to make their contributions.

Mostafa Terrab spoke of the need to shift the perception of the role of corporations from “corporate social responsiblity” to “shared values”–the first carrying the burden of being perceived a ’cost’ to companies for doing business, while shared values takes a longer view and places the emphasis on the benefits of long term investing in local communities. This emphasis on local action was echoed by Isaacson who reminded the audience that business leaders, particularly at the local level, have a better ability to solve problems related to job creation than governments.

Terrab said that the paradox of Arab Spring–record corporate profits in 2011 while disparities between rich and poor widened–has not been resolved. He believes that companies have the capacity to make productive social investments but regulatory regimes do not recognize this as a value.

Throughout the day, there were announcements of specific initiatives to assist companies and entrepreneurs, from a $20 million franchising fund in Tunisia to new venture capital funds for the region. The Aspen Institute model, according to Mr. Isaacson, stresses local results from specific projects. There was a general consensus that corporations, students, and governments have to work closely together to generate the educational and training opportunities that make young people job ready in the shortest possible time. Mostafa Terrab added that entrepreneurship has to be valued within cultures and that a key objective is integrating soft skills into the education and training approaches.

It was a powerful introduction to follow on sessions that probed specific topics related to empowering, developing, financing, and creating enabling environments for new jobs and companies.

Speaking of supporting local businesses, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention three discoveries in Marrkech new to my itinerary that I recommend highly. For a most relaxing and reasonable hammam/massage experience, try marrakech.massage@gmail.com. Of course this must be followed by some of the freshest fruit drinks this side of California at www.cafe-extrablatt.com; topped off by excellent thin crust pizza and fried calamari at Catanzaro, which can be found in numerous guides to Marrakech or at lecatanzaro@espace-maroc.com. And for this I missed the hip-hop night at the hotel!!

This article was originally published on Morocco on the Move.