To Smooth the Storm, Morocco Pushes On

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Articles, favorable and not, continually assess Morocco’s strategic responses to the Arab Uprisings, which King Mohammed VI took on head first by quickly promoting a new Constitution (2011); holding elections for a new Parliament to be led by the party with the most seats, in this case the Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party (PJD); and speaking out often about the need for more citizen participation in the affairs of government. He has also reiterated his commitment to better education outcomes, more equitable economic development, and greater personal and institutional freedoms (e.g., for the media and the judiciary).

Those who defend the regime say this process began with the installation in the late 1990s of an opposition leader as Prime Minister and awareness by King Hassan II, the current King’s father, that unchallenged royal “business as usual” would not survive another decade. They blame the slow pace of change on the birthing pains of a parliamentary democracy, where every current has the ability to prolong debate and question ministers.

Critics of the regime, both Moroccan and otherwise, are of two minds—either the government has been co-opted and still remains too friendly to the royal palace, slowing down needed reforms, or it is a conspiracy in which a slow pace maintains stability and reforms that threaten existing power centers are stalled. They point to the level of human rights abuses, negative government responses to criticism at home and abroad, and lack of large-scale job creation as indicators of failures.

The reality fluctuates between “the government is beholden to the palace and won’t rock the boat” and “the King is a visionary who supports, and indeed calls for, more progress than is being made.” Realistically, the question is: what can Morocco do and what is the reality behind its moderate and mostly successful leadership in the region?

A difficult yet necessary point of departure are the redlines in Moroccan discourse: the monarchy, territorial integrity (read: the Western Sahara/South/Southern Provinces), and Islam. Negative comments on any of these issues have led to bloggers being jailed, newspapers being fined and harassed, and strong criticism levied by government spokespersons.

How does Morocco’s handling of these core topics contribute to understanding the debate around the country’s progress?

Let’s begin with the monarchy. The King still is the symbolic and real leader in military, political, and religious affairs. But the new constitution gave real powers to the Parliament, which is still evolving as an institutional force. Intense debate and discourse take place, and the media follows and stokes partisans on all sides of the issues. So while Parliament might only get a grade of C+ or C-, it is far more decisive than similar bodies in any of its neighbors.

Which brings us to the Sahara. Morocco remains steadfast in its claim to the South, committing billions of dollars to its development in the next 10 years. Some observers note a level of heightened security, some even call it excessive, when it comes to dealing with outsiders such as human rights organizations, left-wing European politicians, and NGOs with similar orientations. This is a difficult challenge for the government, which is working to balance safeguarding freedoms of speech and assembly with progress in implementing regionalization.

Islam is a special category in Morocco’s heritage. As a descendent of the Prophet Muhammed, the King has special obligations towards the religion. In response to critics who challenge the King’s religious role, one could ask: Would they prefer an Iranian or Saudi-style religious domain? The King’s promotion of Maliki Islam’s moderate principles throughout Africa and elsewhere, his exemplary handling of issues regarding the Jewish heritage of Morocco, and his continued interest in the status of Jerusalem are only some of Morocco’s assets when it comes to Islam.

Much has been made of Morocco’s imam and mourchidates training programs to counter violent extremism and the King’s promotion of women’s rights. Using Islam as a touchstone for Morocco’s progress illustrates the King’s awareness of the sensitive ground on which he is treading.

Morocco has much to offer, not as a model, but as a workshop in which democratic and social development challenges are being articulated, refined, and implemented. How it succeeds, in light of both external and internal obstacles, depends largely on the King’s ability to inspire Parliament and the Moroccan people to adopt progressive steps that enhance and enable the future. If Parliament takes advantage of the constitution and gradually builds an institutional foundation for government, and political parties mature as issue-driven entities, Morocco will succeed where others are failing.

Nizar Baraka Details how “Advanced Regionalization” is Advancing Democracy in Morocco

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Plan for the Sahara only the Beginning for Empowering All Moroccans

At a recent roundtable discussion in Washington, DC, The Honorable Nizar Baraka, former Minister of Finance and Economy, who serves as president of the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council (CESE) in Morocco, provided his analysis of the regionalization program being rolled out in Morocco, and how this is already changing the political space in the country.

Mr. Baraka began by reviewing the CESE process for developing the first study of “the South” (the Saharan provinces), which included public hearings with testimony from some 1500 people as well as dozens of studies prepared by experts, which resulted in recommendations for extensive restructuring of local government and a robust economic development strategy. He explained that what is being done in the South is the beginning of “advanced regionalization” for all of Morocco.

He believes this is part of the implementation of shared decision-making and devolution of power promised in the 2011 Constitution. Mr. Baraka emphasized that the credibility of regionalization will only become real when citizens participate in local decision-making that affects their daily lives.

For example, the Parliament (Chamber of Deputies) is currently debating bills that give Civil Society the capacity to submit proposals and petitions directly to Parliament.

There is great economic disparity among the regions in Morocco, he explained. For example, 52% of Morocco’s GDP is produced in four regions, while 53% of its doctors practice in two regions. Similarly, the rate of joblessness in the South is twice the national average. Baraka insists that the direct election of the region’s presidents (the highest locally elected officials), and the five-fold increase in budgets for regional development are strong incentives for citizens to be more involved in local affairs.

So the CESE efforts have focused on how the government can create an environment for greater political responsiveness, and part of this campaign is a new economic development model for the region based on public-private partnerships. This includes large-scale investments in diversifying the economy, a new university focused on local needs, particular attention to conservation, and positioning the Sahara as a gateway to sub-Saharan Africa.

Economic Diversity to Drive Economic Growth

The Sahara is well poised for economic growth. Its GDP is 60% higher than the national average, but some 30% of that is generated by government programs. So the strategy going forward is to deeply engage the private sector to increase investments and jobs. One critical target is to diversify the local economy while protecting the environment. The focus is on empowering individuals to more fully participate in the economy; for example, raising the rate of women in the workforce from a woeful 14% to at least the national average of 25%, and doubling the number of employed youth..

Sectors slated for diversification include fishing, aquaculture, value-added farming, renewable energies, downstream phosphate industries, and eco-tourism. Plans have been finalized for a local university focusing on the needs of the region, including professional development of medical personnel, educators, managers, and lawyers; tourism and hospitality; and research and development supporting local industries. Given that the South’s literacy rate is already 20% higher than the national average, targeted efforts to build on their capabilities through focused programs of higher education should reap short and long term benefits, in terms of jobs and meeting future employer needs.

Conserving the environment is also a prime consideration, especially well water, which is overused. Desalination, reuse of gray water, greater efficiency of energy utilization, treatment regulations for well water, a new dam, and a comprehensive campaign to preserve the eco-system in the Bay of Dakhla are the headline items in this effort.

Looking at both the supply side, which pushes the growth of the local economy, and the demand side, which is the pull of market needs, Africa is the obvious market. Building a new expressway from Agadir to Dakhla onwards to Mauritania and Senegal, high speed digital connectivity, expanded port facilities, and the export of solar power along an interconnected grid are all in the plans for the next 10 years. It is anticipated that 75% of the targeted $10 billion of investment will come from national government public-private sector partnerships, while the regional governments will contribute the remaining 25%. The goal of these efforts is to create 120,000 jobs and cut unemployment in half.

Mr. Baraka provided discussed other plans underway, which he believes will create a seismic shift in how citizens see their roles in relation to the government. Empowering proactive, engaged, and contributing citizens is the core mission of advanced regionalization, which will require a different mix of incentives in Morocco’s different regions. The most important impact, according to him, is that the political space in Morocco has changed forever. This is clear in viewing the evolving role of the media and civil society, debates in Parliament over legislative initiatives, and the pressure on political parties to restructure their governance to reflect issues and priorities. More importantly, advanced regionalization will continue this process and move Morocco towards its goal of a new social compact based on engagement and respect.

What’s All the Fuss about in the Sahara?

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King’s Green March Speech Changes Tempo and Terms of Development

As I remarked in my last blog, there is a new energy in Morocco about the future of the (Western) Sahara as a result of King Mohammed VI’s visit, the extensive projects that were announced, and the commitments he made to the region’s development. Of course, there was the anticipated negative clamoring from the Polisario Front and its supporters, who have done next to nothing to improve the lives of the refugees under their control. It is ironic that they condemned Morocco’s role in the South at a time when the King is ratcheting up the government’s commitment to bring both “deep regionalization” and significant growth to the area.

According to news accounts, these projects will create tens of thousands of jobs, improve local infrastructure, and upgrade access to services for local communities. As importantly, as a result of regionalization, Moroccans living in the Southern Provinces [the South] of Sakia El Hamra Laayoune, Dakhla Oued Ed-Dahab, and Guemim Oued Noon, will have extensive authority running local affairs.

Among the most significant projects are the expansion and construction of a new port facility in Dakhla that will enable greater access by cruise ships to this very attractive area; extension of rail lines from Marrakech to Lagouira (La Güera) south of Dakhla, on the way to Mauritania, opening additional economic links to Africa; enhanced commuter access through new bus facilities; a four-lane highway between Tiznit and Dakhla, opening up the area as a distribution and logistics hub; a centralized training center to support local industries; an entertainment and sports complex; and a new headquarters for the Agency for the Development of the South.

In terms of additional infrastructure, plans include expanded road networks, upgrades to existing air transport facilities, improved community centers, hospitals, clinics, and schools, and a university. The long-term goal is to both enhance the South as a regional center for commerce and industry and make it a viable hub for servicing African markets and projects.

It is estimated that some $7 billion will be spent in the next 10 years in the South, making it a key destination for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), especially given the country’s preference for private-public-partnerships (PPPs) as a vehicle for large-scale projects – utilizing both technology and finance from reputable partners.

King Speaks to the People and the World

In his speech, King Mohammed was clear about his intentions. “We want to make a radical break with the manner in which Sahara issues have been dealt with so far: a break with the rentier economy and privileges, a break with poor private sector involvement and a break with the mentality of centralized administration.”

He attributed this shift in strategy to a realization that the status quo was not sufficient to achieve the full potential of the South. “I am keen to make sure we provide our fellow citizens in the southern provinces with all the necessary means to enable them to manage their own affairs and show they are capable of developing their region.” The King was clear that his vision for the South transcended politics and would build a strong business-based identity for the region, “to enhance the influence of the Sahara region as an economic hub and a crucial link between Morocco and its African roots.”

Among other projects, the King listed “major solar and wind energy projects,” and connecting Dakhla to the national grid – a critical ingredient in rationalizing the cost of power and the capacity to link to projects in Africa.

Other major projects that were included in the King’s remarks were “major seawater desalination plant in Dakhla and the establishment of industrial zones and facilities in Laayoun, El Marsa and Boujdour,” supported by the necessary legal framework that is business-friendly, encourages local and international investors, and attracts financing needed for these large projects.

He also addressed those who complain of Morocco’s use of resources in the South: “I should like to stress, in this connection, that revenue from natural resources will continue to be invested in the region, for the benefit of the local populations and in consultation and coordination with them.”

The King called for legislation that outlines the reciprocal responsibilities of the national and local governments and “to ensure citizen participation through platforms and mechanisms for permanent dialogue and consultation so that the citizens may fully subscribe to programs and be involved in their implementation. I therefore expect the inhabitants of our southern provinces and their representatives to live up to their responsibilities, now that we have set in place the institutional and development-related mechanisms for them to manage their affairs and cater for their needs.”

This is revolutionary stuff for Arab countries…struggling to recast the social contract that for generations defined the relationship between government and citizens. The King is advocating for a substantive recalibration of citizen participation within the framework of a responsive and accountable government. And he is backing up his vision with concrete steps that will change the face of the Sahara within an economic, social, and political framework that augers well for the future of Morocco.

Sensing Change in Morocco

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What to do with Emerging People Power

Just back from 12 days in Morocco tucked in before Thanksgiving. I hadn’t been back for two years, and if I’d believed some press accounts, I would have expected to find a country straining to find its direction. Yet after more than a dozen meetings, informal chats, and leading a graduate seminar for the Executive MBA program at Al-Akhawayn University in Ifrane (AUI), I can say that those who are overwrought about Morocco’s future should focus more on enabling than second-guessing its intentions.

I have to admit that I’m lucky the in the reach of discussions that I had. People I spoke with came from the government, private sector, NGO and civil society communities, and specialized agencies, as well as the US embassy. There is a common thread of understanding that Morocco must do more, and an equally strong commitment to doing it right. Without surplus funds that bolster economic and fiscal policies in other countries, Morocco has to act decisively and in concert with the global investment community to fund ambitious projects ranging from transportation infrastructure and renewable energies to upgrading its public education system and creating sustainable jobs equitably.

Arriving soon after the King’s Green March speech of November 6, I was struck by how strongly Moroccans supported His Majesty’s messages on territorial integrity, regionalization, and economic development initiatives. There is clearly a great deal of respect for the King, which may go a long way to explaining why there is more emphasis among people I spoke with on getting things done without waiting for the government. There continues to be a general lack of faith in many of the political parties (some 31 contested in the last election) and a concern that the House of Deputies is more a house of disputation than collaboration. I know, it sounds familiar…price of democracy some were saying…no rubber stamps in this process!

King Mohammed VI Celebrates 40th Anniversary of Green March

King Mohammed VI Celebrates 40th Anniversary of Green March

The most common themes discussed were: Morocco’s intentions to fully develop the South (Western Sahara) and proceed with “deep” regionalization; concerns about the need for detailed implementation of regionalization, as well as more capacity-building for local officials, and guidelines describing the respective roles of the elected regional presidents and the walis (appointed by the King); the state of public education, which needs more resources and trained personnel; successes in the manufacturing and renewable resource sectors; and the overwhelming necessity to create more jobs without burdening the state.

These are complex issues; often they overlap and are part of a larger challenge. Where should interventions be prioritized in the education sector in the short term to accelerate qualified job seekers? Do you start with those in the job market, upcoming graduates, dropouts, or those with experience and no degrees? All are concerns, and Morocco is trying to offer multifaceted responses.

Another issue: I was told that middle class Moroccans are increasingly burdened by sending their children to private schools so that they can aspire to higher education abroad or at top schools in Morocco, several of which are English-speaking. This leads to a conundrum on several levels: how do you break the cultural perspective that everyone must have a university degree to be someone? How does one promote technical and vocational training as a path to a good-paying and respectable life? For those children who are qualified for higher education, what is the path to a quality program that rewards achievement and supports future schooling?

Morocco is still struggling with issues regarding languages of instruction – Amazigh (Berber), Arabic, French, and English requirements are not yet clearly defined in school programs, a task made more complicated by the prioritizing of resources to the Amazigh program and by lack of qualified English teachers. Hopefully a new collaboration between AMIDEAST and the Minister of National Education will soon start certifying qualified English language instructors.

Parliament is working on a number of critical bills to help facilitate business development through easier financing; enable broad judicial reforms throughout the system; and deal with thorny issues such as land registration and a national media protocol. It appeared from my brief observations that there is increased emphasis on basic economic and rights issues that are at the top of the country’s agenda. There are also discussions about changing regulations to allow more public-private partnerships, which requires revising current incentive guidelines.

The much anticipated opening this December of Noor I, the flagship CSP solar power facility near Ourzazate, was obviously a hot topic, as it exemplifies the country’s commitment to renewables, which I heard repeated in numerous conversations. From ADEREE to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to several entrepreneurs looking for new venture opportunities, there is a buzz about how to leverage Morocco’s growth in renewables into hundreds of jobs in servicing installations both gigantic and household. This is clearly a growth sector throughout the country.

I also want to say a few words about my students – all professionals in fields ranging from engineering to finance to administration, in the public and private sectors. Spending upwards of 12 hours a day with them renewed my confidence in Morocco’s future. They see their country’s shortcomings all too well, as they experience them daily. Yet they are determined, even when personally paying for the degree, to make a difference in their lives and their country. They are sacrificing a lot to become proficient in skills that are a stretch for those emerging from traditional educational systems. I want to acknowledge their hearts…strong and able to grow when challenged.

If Morocco listens, it will hear the future in their voices.

Shared Vision, Shared Objectives

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Shared Vision, Shared Objectives

Bottom Line of the Morocco-US Strategic Dialogue

On Thursday, April 9, the US and Morocco issued a joint communiqué at the conclusion of the third Strategic Dialogue between the two countries. The US praised Morocco’s progress on many fronts, Morocco lauded the commitment of the US to stand by its ally and support its economic, social, and democratic reforms. The language of a special partnership resonated throughout the statement.

Building on the priorities established during King Mohammed VI’s visit to President Obama in November 2013 and subsequent senior-level visits, the statement noted that “our strategic partnership and shared vision will promote a secure, stable, democratic, and prosperous Maghreb, Sahel region, Africa, and Middle East.”

Secretary Kerry “reiterated the United States’ appreciation for the action and leadership of His Majesty the King …,” including his “continuing efforts to strengthen further Morocco’s democratic institutions and promote economic prosperity and human development.”

In anticipation of Moroccan local elections coming in September, the Secretary specifically noted “programs designed to strengthen political parties and civil society” as they prepare for the first ever elections under regionalization – Morocco’s program to devolve more power to locally-elected officials. These elections and the training programs are part of a continuing campaign to build local capacity to administer municipalities, determine local priorities and planning, and implement local solutions to address human development needs.

After lauding Morocco’s progress in reforming the military justice system, enabling more organizations to officially participate in civil society, advancing the powers of the National Human Rights Council (CNDH), and implementing immigration reforms enacted since last year’s Dialogue, the Secretary noted that both countries will work together to advance human rights at the UN Human Rights Council.

Business, Africa, Security, and Regional Affairs

On the business front, the major item discussed in the communiqué was the anticipated second Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact, which focuses on education for a skilled workforce, and improving land policies and productivity. The communiqué also noted that both countries had signed an MOU wherein Morocco will share with select countries in Africa its expertise and lessons learned in the MCC relationship.

Secretary Kerry highlighted the leadership of King Mohammed VI in broadening and deepening Morocco’s relations with Africa. This has become a priority in recent years as instability and violence threaten more countries on the continent. The US and Morocco agreed “to work jointly … through a comprehensive and coordinated approach including food security, access to energy, trade promotion, conflict prevention, and the preservation of cultural and religious identity.” With more than 100 agreements already signed between Morocco and African countries, and the King poised for another five-country visit later this month, Morocco is working hard to strengthen its leadership role in south-south cooperation, a role strongly supported by the US.

Reiterating America’s long-standing policy of support for autonomy for the Western Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty, the communiqué stated, “The United States has made clear that Morocco’s autonomy plan is serious, realistic, and credible, and that it represents a potential approach that could satisfy the aspirations of the people of the Western Sahara to run their own affairs in peace and dignity.” Both countries reaffirmed their shared commitment to improving the lives of the people in the Western Sahara and will consider a number of options to move ahead on that objective.

Men and women training as leaders and counselors promoting moderate Islam

Men and women training as leaders and counselors promoting moderate Islam

As expected, security cooperation was a key agenda item. In addition to addressing the various means through which Morocco and the US are working to counter violent extremism, Secretary Kerry thanked Morocco for its participation in efforts such as the Global Counterterrorism Forum and the Initiative on Open Border Security, as well as Morocco’s innovative training center for Imams, Morchidines, and Morchidates – prayer leaders and male and female religious counselors from Morocco, and other countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Europe.

The dialogue included discussions on “Morocco’s reform of its justice sector and promoting the rule of law, and … the launch of new law enforcement and counterterrorism programs, including a trilateral initiative with Moroccan and American trainers working together to train other African partners in border security and crisis management.” The communiqué further highlighted Morocco’s role in promoting dialogue among factions in Libya, working towards a comprehensive solution in Mali that deals with root causes, and a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. In short, the friends were able in a few hours to reiterate their long-standing security commitments based on broadly shared goals and objectives.

“The Minister and the Secretary concluded by noting that the Moroccan–American strategic partnership is based both on shared interests and shared values which provide many avenues for cooperation and collaboration bilaterally, regionally, and globally.” It is a partnership that offers many opportunities to advance the quality of life for the people of Morocco, provides means for enhancing regional security and prosperity, and enables the United States to work effectively in a part of the world where it has an effective and motivated partner.

What’s at Stake in 2015 for Morocco?

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Will the reform agenda, growth targets, and regional security goals be attained?

In the past few months, I have written several blogs marking the progress of Morocco’s bilateral relationship with the US, including highlights from 2014 ranging from expanded security cooperation and several high level business conferences, to highly visible and successful participation in the US-Africa Leaders Summit and Vice President Joe Biden’s meeting with King Mohammed VI.

While these are useful hallmarks for 2014, they are in some ways benchmarks for viewing challenges and opportunities in the year ahead. There is much to be done if Morocco is to maintain its momentum as a liberalizing and secure country.

When looking to 2015, three key categories of issues stand out. The first of course are issues related to the Western Sahara including the MINURSO renewal, disruptive actions of the Polisario Front supported by Algeria, and the potential for US foreign assistance to be extended to Sahara to advance human development.

Closely related to this are regional security and stability concerns including combating violent extremism through internal and external efforts; counteracting the ISIS threat inherent in militants returning from war-torn areas in the Levant; and supporting stronger regional economic ties to boost employment.

Finally, Morocco has quite a diverse domestic reform agenda, which includes legislation addressing key constitutional issues and continued efforts to expand its commercial and investment opportunities, promote entrepreneurship, and advance its role as a business platform for Africa.

Although the agenda is quite complex and requires heightened cooperation and collaboration among government, the private sector, and civil society, the seeds have been planted for potentially beneficial outcomes. And regardless of what some pundits claim, Morocco alone, among the Maghreb countries, has the domestic leadership stability to take risks to advance its agenda.

Western Sahara

The annual renewal of the MINURSO mandate by the UN Security Council, required to enable it to continue its mission as observers in the Western Sahara in support of a sustainable resolution to the conflict, is anything but routine. Despite recent attempts to impose a human rights monitoring role on MINURSO, Morocco has been able to demonstrate that it takes its role in the territory quite seriously and extends human rights protections throughout all of Morocco. This has enabled Morocco’s friends on the Security Council to promote extensive collaboration between Morocco and UN agencies on this issue and avoid inserting a human rights monitoring role in the MINURSO mandate.

Despite Morocco’s steps to improve the lives of the people in the South, the Polisario Front, fully supported by Algeria, continues an extensive campaign to challenge Morocco’s presence in the area, with some of its members aligning themselves to trafficking, smuggling, and militant elements who are a significant threat throughout the region. Algeria plays its part by maintaining the closure of its border with Morocco, opposing Morocco’s diplomatic initiatives, and refusal to engage in broader conversations on security and economic development.

Perhaps the prospects for positive results from hydrocarbon exploration in the area will encourage the parties to seriously engage in dialogue regarding how to best insure the future of the southern region, which depends on support from Rabat for its economic, social, and infrastructure growth. A significant step by the US government, which mandates US foreign assistance funding in the Sahara, may prove to be a catalyst to promoting the long-sought acknowledgement by Sahrawis enclosed in the Polisario camps in Algeria that their futures are better secured in a thriving, committed Morocco.

Working on a Secure, Stable Future for the Region

Secretary John Kerry meets with Morocco's King Mohammed VI

Secretary John Kerry meets with Morocco’s King Mohammed VI

King Mohammed VI has repeatedly called for a multidimensional approach to combating violent extremism at home, including job training, family counseling, and emphasizing religious moderation. This same approach defines Morocco’s approach to regional security and stability – training imams in moderate religious discourse; broadening economic growth to be more inclusive and sustainable; and working with governments and private sectors to support greater attention to enfranchising marginalized and excluded minorities.

Morocco’s role in the coalitions against ISIS and al-Qaeda demonstrates the strong position that the country has taken to challenge extremism and militants bent on destruction and mayhem. Hosting coalition meetings, sending forces to the UAE for military technical assistance, and participating in airstrikes against ISIS are a few of the more visible steps taken by Morocco this past year.

As importantly, the government of Morocco, under the King’s leadership, has entered into more than 80 agreements with its African neighbors to expand economic opportunities and diminish the attraction of militant recruitment.

Growing the Region, Changing Lives for the Better

Domestically, Parliament and the government have a full slate of bills that will implement significant changes in how the country operates. Chief among these is the restructuring of the judicial system to make it independent of outside forces. Other efforts of note include finalizing the new law on associations, which will define guidelines for registering civil society organizations and other associations; and passing the law that eliminates the use of military tribunals for political offenses.

Mourchidate working in community center

Key 2015 Event: Local Elections

Another event to watch is how the government and political parties conduct themselves in the upcoming local elections. Heralded as a concrete step towards regionalization, the elections are already contentious since Parliament has not yet passed the empowering electoral law for the elections to proceed, the myriad possibilities of alliances among parties, the role of  international organizations encouraging a more competitive and open process, and the implications of the various results scenarios.

Hosting the Global Entrepreneurship Summit (GES) was only the latest showcase in Morocco’s commitment to domestic and regional economic growth. The country is moving to maximize its parallel strategy of growing investments in diverse sectors while promoting workforce education and training that results in market-ready labor. Where Morocco is getting it right is emphasizing programs beyond IT to agriculture, hospitality and financial services, skills trade, and special efforts for youth and women.

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2015 can be another breakout year for Morocco. Falling energy prices are reducing the drag of energy imports on the economy. Subsidies are being phased out or re-targeted for maximum savings and impact; and the business environment continues to improve for both domestic and international companies. The year may be long and difficult, full of domestic, regional, and international challenges. Yet there seems to be a growing commitment to see the future as an opportunity, which is the key ingredient for success.

What has Transpired Since the Meeting of King Mohammed VI with President Obama in 2013?

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Morocco Is Moving to Strengthen Ties

The Joint Statement issued after last November’s visit between King Mohammed VI of Morocco and President Barack Obama was quite explicit. There were concrete pledges of economic, political, and security cooperation and collaboration, as well as a strengthened commitment by Morocco on human rights and by the US to maintain its consistent policy of support for a Western Sahara solution based on autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty.

So it makes sense to take a closer look at the performance in key sectors by both parties a year later and gauge where there has been progress and where greater efforts are needed.

The opening paragraphs addressed the “strong and mutually beneficial partnership and strategic alliance” with a pledge “to advance our shared priorities of a secure, stable, and prosperous Maghreb, Africa, and Middle East.” At the top of the list was support for democratic and economic reforms, including US help to “strengthen Morocco’s democratic institutions, civil society, and inclusive governance.” On Morocco’s agenda are support for the UN human rights regime, eliminating military trials of civilians, protecting the rights of migrants, refugees, and victims of human trafficking, and supporting full women’s participation in public life.

Reform Agenda

Morocco has been moving forward on all of these issues and others including a bill ending military trials of civilians that is currently in Parliament, as is an upcoming draft of a bill regarding NGOs and associations. A wide-ranging program for the protection of migrants was announced earlier this year and is drawing plenty of public attention. A draft media law was presented for public comment last month and debate on judicial reform is ongoing.

On other fronts, progress continues as the then-UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay visited Morocco earlier this year honoring the country’s achievements, while hearings are continuing on enhancing gender equity in the workplace, in the political parties, and in the upcoming local elections. It is anticipated that the World Forum on Human Rights recently held in Morocco will break new ground in strengthening human rights protections in Morocco.

Bilateral and Regional Economic Cooperation

On economic cooperation efforts, the US and Morocco are deep in negotiations on a second Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact focusing on inclusive human development; the fifth Global Economic Summit was held in late November in Marrakech, and there was a very successful Business Development Conference – part of the bilateral Strategic Dialogue – in Rabat this past March. Both countries are committed to building an even more robust Free Trade Agreement and more delegations between them.

The US has been strongly supportive of Morocco’s efforts to act as a bridge to Africa for businesses. Morocco’s highly visible profile during the African Leaders Summit in Washington DC this past summer; its continued support from USAID for inclusive human development programs; and its role at the United Nations and other international organizations have drawn kudos from US leaders.

The Western Sahara, Security, Counterterrorism

Human rights protections and resolving the Western Sahara conflict are the two major areas of consultations between the allies, apart from counterterrorism concerns. The US supported an extension of the MINURSO US Security Council mandate in April, and is seeking ways to improve human development efforts in the southern provinces, while exploring how to move formal negotiations forward at the UN based on Morocco’s autonomy proposal.

Judging by the remarks of US officials, from the President and Vice President to members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Morocco is playing a leadership and supportive role on regional issues as well as in the coalition countering ISIL . As importantly, Morocco’s pioneering efforts in countering extreme violence are being shared with more than a dozen African countries.

Recently, Morocco played a key role in the Global Counterterrorism Forum to “strengthen regional political, economic, and security ties across North Africa and the Sahel, including through a reinvigorated Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) and other regional forums.” And Morocco responded to the US initiative to join the International Institute of Justice and Rule of Law in Malta “to train a new generation of criminal justice officials across North, West, and East Africa on how to address counterterrorism and related security challenges through a rule of law framework.” While the King continues to call for opening the Morocco-Algeria border and resuscitating the AMU, there is little that can be accomplished without more concrete actions by the US to encourage Algeria’s cooperation.

What’s Next

A useful barometer of where the relationship is heading is to parse the US statement on the meeting of Vice President Biden with King Mohammed VI at the beginning of the Global Entrepreneurship Summit.

VP Biden at Global Entrepreneurship Summit credit Morocco World News

VP Biden at Global Entrepreneurship Summit credit Morocco World News

“The Vice President and King Mohammed VI discussed how best to support Morocco’s success, and reaffirmed their dedication to work together to promote human and economic development.” Of particular importance was the mention of “a strategic triangular cooperation in Africa, particularly in the fields of access to energy and food security.”

In addition to reaffirming the importance of the 2013 Joint Statement, “the Vice President and King Mohammed VI spoke about the wide range of global, regional, and bilateral issues on which Morocco and the United States are partners, including efforts to advance the shared priority of achieving a secure, stable, and prosperous Maghreb, Africa, and Middle East. In particular, they discussed their countries’ efforts together as part of the international coalition against ISIL. The Vice President and King Mohammed VI agreed on the importance of the non-military aspects of the struggle against violent extremism, including exposing and discrediting violent extremist recruitment and providing a compelling alternative through social and political inclusion and economic opportunity.”

With so much at stake, some believe that the process of parliamentary action on key bills may be not as speedy as it could be, yet the process of consultation and consensus-building among stakeholders remains intrinsic to decision-making in Morocco.

A year on, it is clear that the bilateral relationship is going from strength to strength and next year’s report card will be even more favorable.

Investing in Natural Resources in the Western Sahara

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How Morocco is Meeting International Standards for Resource Management

The most challenging decision facing companies interested in doing business the Western Sahara is gaining sufficient awareness of how external realities and internal facts on the ground affect the business environment in which they will be working. For the Western Sahara, this means that one must understand the overall milieu in Morocco, how this impacts the Sahara, and what, if any, special considerations affect potential operations in the south.

The Business Environment

When one takes a close look at what’s going on in Morocco, two large issues stand out: the need for jobs and the demand for transparency. Morocco has a young population whose education, job, and social needs must be met. But the government, which imports more than 95 percent of its energy needs and spends up to seven percent of GDP on subsidies for food, energy, and social services, does not have unlimited resources to stimulate job creation. This is, in fact, an opportunity for companies, which can play a key role in setting economic growth strategies through public-private partnerships (PPPs).

Local and international private sectors have much to offer. Their knowledge of global and local markets, the competition, and the costs of doing business affect everything from labor/employment/training priorities to what is needed from governments in terms of infrastructure and investment incentives. Morocco values PPPs because they bring technical expertise and funding to projects that might otherwise be delayed or never get off the ground.

With regard to the Western Sahara, business opportunities have been limited to date, despite claims by some of its extensive on and off shore resources. Without expanded infrastructure, robust development of existing and potential resources remains limited. The previous Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact in Morocco addressed some issues for ramping up the fishing industry but did not extend its work to the Sahara. It is hoped that the increased pace of exploration for gas and oil will encourage more companies—if outcomes are successful—to look at supply chains and value-added industries and services as viable prospects for doing business in the Western Sahara.

As importantly, Morocco knows what it has to do to reassure the international business community on issues of transparency. The joint declaration of principles concerning hydrocarbon exploration and production, proposed revision to labor statutes, overall judicial reforms, environmental codes, and related regulations, all demonstrate that Morocco is committed to best practices in terms of local consultation, empowering beneficiaries equitably, and protecting investments.

Fairness and Equity in Resource Management

Morocco has adopted a policy towards governing the Sahara and management of its resources that is serious, realistic, and credible. In 2006, it proposed autonomy for the region, the only fresh thinking to date on resolving the political conflict. Also, as part of the overall Moroccan reform process that started in the late 90s, the people of the Sahara fully participate in local and national elections, have their own representatives locally and in Parliament, and are included in national development programs such as the National Initiative for Human Development (INDH) and the Millennium Development Goals’ social, economic, and human development programs.

Title page of the CESE report

CESE Study which sets the model for Morocco in the Sahara

To develop a new regional model for sustainable development throughout the country, King Mohammed VI tasked the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council (CESE) to undertake extensive consultations with stakeholders in the south, and with analysts, experts, and researchers to draw up recommendations, which resulted in three key assessments:

Despite the expenditure of around $2.5 billion over the past decade, much more has to be done to achieve the vision of economic growth and robust local governance.

A new model and budget for sustainable and participatory development in the region is needed to build capacity for representative and effective local governance, economic and social growth—a model centered on a culture of human rights, honoring ethnic diversity, and treating all citizens equally.

The participatory democracy model must have at its core inputs of local stakeholders and potential beneficiaries for the use of local on- and off-shore natural resources. This commitment is already evident: in the EU-Morocco fisheries agreement, and Joint Declaration of Principles regarding energy exploration and production, both of which commit to returning benefits to the local population; in upgraded programs for supporting small- and medium-sized businesses; in market-linked training programs; and in the broad range of legislation to be enacted to implement the recommendations of the CESE report, budgeted at some $18 billion over the next 10 years.

Why Invest in the Sahara

As noted, not only has Morocco already invested some $2.5 billion in the infrastructure and social services in the Sahara, it is poised to spend $18 billion more in the next 10 years, whether or not oil and gas are found in commercial quantities. This means opportunities in light manufacturing, port and transport facilities, value-added fish and food processing, and infrastructure projects, among others.

The south of Morocco is part of the government’s substantial program of investments in renewable energies. This will generate a broad array of supply-chain opportunities for new businesses and services. To support this growth, the government hass in place specific training incentives to bring local hires up to market-ready standards.

Morocco banks on solar power

Solar Array in Morocco

In terms of managing the natural resources in the south, then, a key element is managing expectations about what is yet to be realized. Rathern than waiting to see what happens in the hydrocarbon sector, companies can look at what can be done within the broad parameters of recommendations from the CESE report. With Congress’ lifting of restrictions on US funding in the south as part of the 2014 Appropriations law, EX-IM Bank, OPIC, and other US agencies should be redefining their missions in the Sahara.

Ironically, several analysts have already opined that oil and gas discoveries in the Sahara may actually speed a peaceful resolution of the conflict in a win-win outcome. Under its commitment to benefit the local inhabitants and its adoption of the CESE recommendations, Morocco has made a credible case for ending the humanitarian crisis in the Tindouf camps by bringing the refugees home, and empowering the local population through the sustainable, participatory democracy envisioned in the CESE reports.

Note to State Department: Treat our Ally as a Partner, not a Liability

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Why Can’t the US have a Consistent Voice on the Western Sahara?

Two events, separated by an ocean and it seems a universe, occurred recently that provided an opportunity for the US to enhance its foreign policy credibility. It is interesting to see how the State Department is attempting to reconcile its seemingly uncertain position on Morocco’s autonomy proposal for the Western Sahara with the growing international consensus that the autonomy is a potential solution for achieving self-determination for the region. It is all the more confusing majorities in both Houses of Congress and three consecutive administrations have called the autonomy proposal “serious, realistic, and credible.”

Strategic Dialogue Sets the Tone

The first event was the second US-Morocco Strategic Dialogue held April 4 and 5 in Morocco. Secretary Kerry led from the US side. It was a really remarkable visit. He jointly chaired the Strategic Dialogue with Foreign Minister Salaheddine Mezouar; visited with leaders of Parliament and staff at the US Embassy; and presided over the swearing-in of the most recent group of Peace Corps volunteers assigned to Morocco. It was a prolonged love fest, visibly demonstrating why the two allies hold each other in such high regard.

Secretary John Kerry meets with Morocco's King Mohammed VI

Secretary John Kerry meets with Morocco’s King Mohammed VI

And statements words from both sides echoed the strong ties expressed by King Mohammed VI and President Obama during the King’s visit in November 2013. In his opening remarks, Secretary Kerry noted “We are here today to help shape a common future, and it’s a future defined by a shared prosperity and shared security that we can create together…and shared…values.” In speaking about security issues Kerry commented “The United States stands by and will stand by this relationship every step of the way. President Obama is deeply committed to that, and that commitment comes from…our people.”

Foreign Minister Mezouar was equally eloquent. In addressing the Western Sahara he said:

“The Moroccan initiative in its content reacts to the expectations of the people in the Sahara in the management of their own affairs, which guarantees dignity, freedom, and development.” He went on “The atmosphere of an understanding – of the environment of understanding based on common political and references of democracy and human rights makes us believe in our ability for a common partnership…that will be very important and decisive in determining the progress in this region and in Africa.”

The joint statement at the conclusion of the Strategic Dialogue was quite specific in defining the parameters of this partnership. Whether in reference to human rights and political reforms, civil society and immigration issues, or economic cooperation and cultural and educational cooperation, the tone was serious, constructive, and hopeful. On the regional level, the two parties pledged “to use our strategic partnership to advance shared priorities of a stable, democratic, and prosperous Maghreb, Africa, and Middle East.” Secretary Kerry “Reaffirmed our commitment to a peaceful, sustainable, mutually agreed-upon solution to the Western Sahara question…The United States has made clear that Morocco’s autonomy plan is serious, realistic, and credible, and that it represents a potential approach that could satisfy the aspirations of the people in the Western Sahara to runt their own affairs in peace and dignity. Furthermore, “The Secretary welcomed the recent actions and initiatives by Morocco to continue to protect and promote human rights in the territory.”

So What’s Up at State?

The second event occurred on April 9 when the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa asked representatives from the State Department and USAID to address “U.S. Policy Toward Morocco.”

After complimenting Morocco on its efforts in democratic and economic reforms, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, William Roebuck, addressed the Western Sahara issue using similar language to Secretary Kerry in Morocco supporting “the United Nations-led process designed to bring about a peaceful, sustainable, and mutually-acceptable solution to the Western Sahara question.”

In reference to the 2014 Appropriations law enabling Title III funding to be spent anywhere in Morocco, DAS Roebuck noted that spending US funds in the Western Sahara would somehow undermine the non-going negotiations, which have been dormant for years. There is clearly a disconnect between what some at the State Department promote as US interests and the position taken by the Bush, Clinton, and Obama Administrations and majorities of Congress that the autonomy plan is the only way forward.

In her prepared remarks, Alina Romanowski, Deputy Assistant Administrator at the Middle East USAID Bureau was equally narrowly focused on existing initiatives with no reference to the Appropriations mandate. This would be understandable if this was a debate 20+ years ago when the first UN mission was assigned on a referendum mission. US policy changed in 2006 in favor of a negotiated, mutually acceptable political solution. The only proposition that emerged from that step is the Morocco autonomy initiative referenced by Chair Ros-Lehtinen and other members of the Subcommittee. Yet, there are those at State who can overlook the humanitarian and capacity-building needs of the people of the Sahara and stay the 1991 course of inaction.

It’s past time to enable the people of the Western Sahara to build their capacity to enjoy the autonomy promised by Morocco to manage their affairs as promised within the regionalization proposed in Morocco’s 2011 Constitution. Morocco is a steadfast and willing partner in a region where that kind of ally is in short supply. If we are sincerely interested in the human, social, economic, and political development of the Sahara, autonomy supported by the US and the global community is the way forward; this will be the best antidote to insecurity in the region. This will give them the dignity the people in the Sahara deserve.

Testing the Waters of Morocco’s Link to Africa

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I just returned from Dakhla, in the south of Morocco, where the sounds of the Atlantic Ocean reminded me that there is an undeniable link that is becoming increasingly stronger between this continent and the Americas. Earlier last week, that was the theme of the Atlantic Dialogues, a joint project of the German Marshall Fund and the OCP-Foundation that explores the growing vitality of commerce, diplomacy, and common interests in the environment, human development, and economic growth on both sides of the ocean.

Throughout our stay in Morocco, including most recently in Dakhla, we have heard the theme of Morocco’s future in Africa as an alternative, along with the US, to its traditional trading partners in Europe, which have experienced a decline in their interactions with Morocco. Dakhla, we were told, is Morocco’s “Door to Africa” much as Tangier is Morocco’s “Door to Europe.” Fortuitously, two recent events in Washington, DC looked at this proposition from two different but related perspectives and found many reasons to support this view of Morocco’s future.

The Africa Center at the Atlantic Council held a roundtable on Morocco’s security relations in Africa and how these intersect with US interests in the region. Policy experts from various agencies, NGOs, and think tanks in Washington reviewed a paper presented by Dr. J. Peter Pham, who directs the Africa Center, which examined the case for enhancing Morocco’s security capacity in Africa both to deepen regional operational ties and to advance the US’ ability to work in cooperation with countries in the area. The final version of the paper, incorporating the group’s refinements, is due to be released shortly.

Morocco’s Role in Regional Security

Dr. Pham opened with a summary of the paper, stating his belief that Morocco is sometimes taken for granted by US policy makers, despite, or perhaps because of, our long and valued ties. He believes that in a region where the US doesn’t have many reliable allies, we should do more to build a strong security relationship with Morocco. While the country has a very robust counterterrorism strategy, which he described in some detail, Dr. Pham noted that greater international cooperation will certainly expand the effectiveness of the region’s efforts to maintain security and promote stability.

Morocco and the US have held joint military exercises since 1999, and building these into a program of regional joint operations would contribute to the interoperability of forces in West and North Africa and the Sahel and improve the professional behavior of militaries in participating countries. Dr. Pham pointed out that Algeria’s reluctance to include Morocco in regional counterterrorism coordination makes it necessary to have overlapping regional security agreements, which does not serve US interests for a broader, more effective approach to regional security.

Dr. Pham also strongly supports a holistic approach to security, which means enhancing stability by including programs that promote economic development, respect for minorities, enhanced rule of law, and better governance. At the core of the recommendations in his paper, later expanded on by the experts, is the view that the US has much to gain by broadening and deepening its security programs with Morocco as a regional player. Despite the obstacles inherent in Morocco-Algeria tensions over the Western Sahara, and the ensuing competition for regional leadership, US interests are not well served by the lack of robust military and security ties between Morocco and Algeria.

Knocking on the “Door to Africa”

A paper prepared by Haim Malka, Deputy Director of the Middle East Program at The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), took a broad look at Morocco’s Africa strategy. His paper was a refinement of an earlier paper published in early October, which was then presented to a roundtable of participants from the US government, think tanks, policy analysts, NGOs, and former diplomats for their comments and recommendations regarding how the US can support Morocco’s economic growth.

Mr. Malka makes a strong case for Morocco’s strategic pivot to the south, arguing that the decline of trade, investment, tourism, and remittances from the EU makes that shift an imperative. Another important point that may seem counterintuitive is that Morocco’s business outreach to the US has been limited due to the lack of competitiveness and “fit” of Moroccan products with the US market.

With the prospects for North African regional economic integration at a stalemate due to the conflict in relations with Algeria, the Moroccan strategy to expand and deepen its economic ties to Africa is sensible and can be immensely profitable. So Mr. Malka’s recommendation is that the US work to enhance Morocco’s strategy to more deeply engage economically throughout Africa, beyond its traditional ties to Francophone Africa.

The basic concern Mr. Malka raises is the need for Morocco to become more competitive in terms of its domestic economy so that it can enhance its capacity to export manufacturing products to Africa. While Morocco has a strong base in financial, transportation, and IT services, it needs to greatly improve its manufacturing base if it is to succeed in the Africa marketplace.

Among his other recommendations is for the US to work with Morocco by re-allocating US funding through triangular aid programs that utilize Morocco’s expertise in Africa in delivering social, health, and community development projects. He also makes a strong recommendation that Morocco decouple its economic strategy from its Western Sahara policy, as some of the biggest markets in Africa do not agree with Morocco’s position on that issue.

The experts noted that Morocco already has a strong footprint in Africa and must focus on increasing its competitive edge in order to expand existing market opportunities and open new ones. They also noted that the private sector has more freedom to operate below the political radar and therefore more flexibility and opportunities to promote ties across Africa. US regional interests in stability, employment, and economic growth benefit from a stronger Moroccan presence in Africa. Africa’s rapidly growing consumer markets, need for more efficient use of agricultural land, power generation requirements, and banking and financial services, all provide immense opportunities for Morocco in Africa. The basic requirement at this point is for Morocco to undertake a comprehensive analysis of where it has competitive advantages in the emerging African economy and build a strategy to target and support its exports to those markets.

While Morocco does not compare with China, India, and even South Africa in terms of size of impact on African markets, it has the agility and private sector capabilities to carve out a prosperous and effective presence in Africa, serving its regional and national economic growth goals, and US interests for greater stability and development on the continent