Can Lebanon Salvage Its Stability and Regional Economic Role? PR Hariri Thinks So

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A recent story on www.Naharnet.com featured an assessment of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s recent experiences and his vision for Lebanon in the coming year. He emphasized once again that it is vital that the parties in Lebanon engage in serious and concrete dialogue as the only possible approach to moving the country forward.

The posting noted Hariri’s statement “Emphasizing that he and certain political parties will not agree on a lot of issues, especially regional matters, Hariri asked: “Without dialogue, how would the situation in the country be? We experienced the absence of dialogue prior to the Taif Accord but we ended up around the same table. The Taif Accord is doing very well because we will always defend this Constitution.”

Despite his return and the commitment of the government to observe the dissociation agreement, many questions regarding the relationship with Saudi Arabia, the role of Hezbollah as Iran’s proxy, the flailing economy, and the impact of the outcome of upcoming election on May 6, still confound most Lebanese and outside observers.

Hariri remains proactive on the economy

High on the PM’s agenda is restoring Lebanon as an investment destination for regional business. Even the latest political upheaval around his resignation/reversal has not dimmed his optimism. In a statement carried by the government media, He said that “this is the best time to invest in Lebanon because, thanks to this political stability and security in our country, we have been able to establish that the country is capable of confronting crises in a wise manner.”

More specifically, he hopes the government will not increase the fiscal deficit next year while meeting the financial demands of the new national budget.
His remarks came during a session at the Global Business Summit organized by LIFE and Endeavor Lebanon.

Regarding the national budget, he noted that the recently passed legislation includes a number of reforms and some taxes. He was quick to emphasize that investments in the existing infrastructure program, debuted at the donors conference last year, was a viable starting point. The PM said that the government was ready to launch its efforts based on the results of the upcoming donors conference in March, which would mean raising $750 million of the $3 billion price tag. He also stressed the importance of the private sector’s role in the program with projects that could be initiated as early as February to upgrade the power infrastructure, rebuild roads, and other projects requiring the acquisition of land from existing owners.

In order to attract both domestic and international investors, however, Lebanon must adopt certain regulations and protocols that are not yet in place. Hariri said that “There are many laws that we have prepared and which are very important to encourage work. We worked on them in cooperation with several ministries and advisory bodies. They will be completed in Cabinet and then referred to Parliament, which will not delay them. With these laws, business will be much easier. There are a number of other laws that we will work on and a number of legal offices will help us in this matter in order to speed up their adoption.”

On the thorny issue of transparency, the PM pointed out how Lebanon had utilized international standards for the oil and gas awards and was now following up with the World Bank and IMF to implement similar standards for the CIP (Capital Improvement Projects) and other efforts that require international donors and participation by the private sector.

The wide-ranging discussion continued on topics such as taxes, the government deficit, support for SMEs, perceptions of political stability, relations with the Gulf States, investing in technology, and the internet in Lebanon. While it was an effective presentation by the PM, his points did not go unchallenged.

Not so fast Mr. Prime Minister In an article posted on the UAE site www.thenational.ae, the author challenged the PM’s optimism on a number of points. The author, Michael Karam, noted that “Everyone from the IMF to the various ratings agencies knows that the country is crippled by an external funding deficit of roughly 20 per cent of GDP and a government debt running at 150 per cent of GDP.” He also noted the disproportionate importance of remittances, some 16% of GDP, which could be reduced by political actions abroad, setting off an economic crisis.

Karam wrote that “Mr Hariri should take a page out of his late father’s book and give the people he is trying to woo something worth investing in. Rafik Hariri rebuilt the whole of central Beirut into what he believed would be a retail, tourism, and commercial hub.” It was a success initially “But today, the Beirut Central District lies largely deserted, a symbol of what happens when regional politics trumps business ambition,” referring to the blockade of the BCD by Hezbollah to force the government to not interfere with its independent telecommunications network.

The key point, he contends, “Is that the initiative was government-led, forming part of Hariri’s Lebanon 2000 vision, which he unveiled in the mid-90s. If only someone would give us similar hope, the business community might get behind his son. Give the private sector enough electricity, adequate clean water, and decent broadband, and it will perform miracles. And it could all be paid for with the oil and that gas that in all likelihood sits under the Lebanese coast.”

Although any realistic projection of revenues from oil and gas production is still 3-5 years away, there can still be another Lebanese “miracle” if somehow the business of reconstruction reverses the stereotype of Lebanon as a country that lacks transparency, is ruled by elites more concerned with benefiting their own constituencies rather than country as a whole, and a political system beholden to forces domestic, regional, and international forces that do not respect Lebanon’s independence.

National Values and Nation-Building – Out of Sync Concepts?

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There have been several papers lately on issues such as governance, democracy, national values, citizenship, and related topics, mostly analyzing the disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Some astute observers have noted that we have similar concerns in the United States given the fault lines that became more obvious as a result of the 2016 presidential elections. The common thread is that political societies are constantly evolving, and technology is providing the means to accelerate and mobilize forces for change that are challenging how people are governed. The notion of “consent of the governed” is altering notions of the relationship between a government and the people.

In this blog, I want to look at “civic education,” the process by which citizens become acculturated to a country’s values and its political system. 

I first became conscious of the importance of civic education in my eighth grade “civics” class, as it was then called, which looked at the United States and how it pursued its interests at home and abroad. There was no discussion about the correctness of the national values on which these interests were based. It was assumed that our values were the best model for any country to emulate. This experience focused my interest on wanting to make the US better understood in the world by engaging in programs that facilitated cross-cultural dialogue. As a son of immigrants, the US for our family was and still is something unique and full of promise. That hasn’t changed in the following 50+ years, and neither has the need for America having an open discussion about its priorities and interests.

Definitions of civic education have common elements. A recent paper by CSIS says “Civic education in schools and beyond teaches citizens how to vote, what their community needs are and what values it holds, and what the social compact between elected officials and their constituents means in practical terms.” A study of civic education in the Arab world conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace listed these characteristics, “This education for citizenship has three main components: knowledge of civic concepts, systems, and processes of civic life, including education for human rights and democracy; skills of civic participation; and students’ general disposition, including a sense of belonging to the state and shared values and ethics.”

The Arab Spring has challenged the notions of citizenship from a top-down perspective as young people and others feeling marginalized threw down the gauntlet to redefine their country’s social contract between the government and citizens, demanding accountability, economic opportunity, transparency, and political inclusion. How this still rings true today, with even more urgency, is underscored in a joint paper from the Atlantic Council and Brookings Institution as part of the Middle East Strategy Taskforce series. The paper, “Real security: Governance and stability in the Arab world,” argued, among other points, that governance was in the process of being redefined and the core issue was one of restoring social trust through dialogue and resolving conflicts at all levels.

One of the key elements raised by several of the panelists is that the process of reconstructing the social contract to achieve sustainable governance is a decentralized, bottom up approach based on local sensibilities and priorities. This means investing in civil society, civic education, and building out the political space for decision-making by local officials.

There are programs that can be helpful. NGOs such as Civitas and Street Law, enable young people and communities to proactively learn how democracy works, the roles of government and citizen, major influences shaping a country’s civic values, and many other topics. The CSIS article is clear that programs that work in one country will not necessarily work in another – an important caveat for those who think that democracy and governance programs can be implemented without thorough consideration of local sensibilities.

It also notes that what is critical in states going through transitions, whether through elections or post-conflict, is “rebuilding trust in the government and educating the voter base on what to expect…Civic education combats disillusionment among voters and opens a dialogue between government officials and citizens.” The importance of building trust with youth cannot be overstated, as they have “unprecedented access to information” but very low rates of participation in their countries’ political space, which is monopolized by traditional players.

Easy to be deceived by data. fairobserver.com

Easy to be deceived by data.
fairobserver.com

The National Democratic Institute recently published a blog on the potential negative impact of social media on democracy. It builds on this point with the observation that “Social media and the Internet have had a drastic effect on the surprise results of yesterday’s election in the United States, driving the spread of information—and misinformation—at times bringing voters together and, perhaps more often, pushing them apart….It’s important to recognize that this is not a uniquely American trend.” A study  across 26 countries indicates that more than half of Internet users use social media as a primary source of news, and more than 25% call it their main news source. Percentages may be even higher in developing countries with high Internet penetration.

The long-term challenge is to protect the government-citizen interaction from malicious and misleading attacks from external and internal foes. As NDI points out “Creating and protecting safe platforms on the web for genuine political discourse will require collaboration among a host of actors. Governments, technology companies, media outlets, the academic community and organizations around the world must come together to develop policies and practices to aid civil society and citizens in addressing this problem, and build norms and standards for democratic governments to support an open Internet.”

Protecting this valuable suite of tools for promoting democratic values in the coming years will require significant efforts to shield political discourse from those who would damage a country’s transition to a stronger national consensus on its key values. The need for inclusive dialog for countries in transition can have no better starting point than a refresher course on a country’s national values and social contract.

 

Large image:Flickr.com

What is “Inclusive” Democracy?

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And what are a country’s national values?

Much of the commentary following the recent US presidential election is about if and how “American values” will be defended and promoted by the next administration. Potential appointments, speeches, and interviews of President-elect Trump and his surrogates are parsed to speculate about priorities and possible actions that may or may not become emblematic of the new administration. Yet aside from generalized nods towards “making America great again,” there does not seem to be a coherent definition of which values are most salient at this time and under what circumstances.

Some would argue that values are enduring, not situational. Yet the relevance of specific values to what one believes is right and actionable is not always clear, particularly when there is confusion about the transactional nature (this for that) that characterizes most global political exchanges. As we look  at the results of these elections, we can’t help but question which “American values” will be most important to President Trump as he takes office and begins to steer his agenda through Congress and has to deal with groups of engaged citizens.

A recent article on the emerging Trump policies noted the importance of interests in framing how values are expressed to the world at large. There is often confusion between interests and values, the former situational and subject to negotiation, while the latter are supposedly existential and often more enduring than interests. But that distinction doesn’t explain how values become honored within a culture, how they are acquired, and how they evolve or not over time.

In the US, we have several foundational documents that characterize American values: life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness, equality, and justice for all, to list the more obvious. Over several hundred years, these have evolved into notions of democracy, human rights, equality before the law, defense of the homeland, and peaceful relations with other nations, among others that most Americans, at least conceptually, would agree on.

image: Tipperary Republican

image: Tipperary Republican

This is not the case in most of the developing world where constitutions are sometimes treated as ephemeral statements that reflect political conditions at the time of independence including, prevailing political centers in the regime, strong cultural mores, and dominant themes such as anti-colonialism, third-world solidarity, and the language of rights espoused by the UN. As countries in the MENA and Africa move through post-independence to more robust political systems, they face the challenge of defining their national values anew, promoting their adoption within an adaptable framework, and sustaining relevance to governments and citizens alike.  This is especially difficult as subgroups within the country start to differentiate their unmet aspirations from the prevailing narrative associated with the national identity.

Ultimately, the central question is how countries can adopt core values that are resilient over time and accepted by the vast majority of citizens. These shared values are at the heart of a country’s social contract that embodies the mutual obligations of the leadership and the people. And it is the erosion of these basic ties that are at the heart of the current contradictions in forming a “more perfect union.” The Arab Spring as well as the wave of populism in Latin America and Africa are both reactionary in terms of dissatisfaction with the status quo, and proactive as people seek to find a responsive, inclusive, transparent national political culture.

Part of the problem is that in many countries, the depiction of national values at the time of independence has come under criticism as either having been imposed by elites who drove independence, borrowed from regional and international organizations (think the AU and UN for example), or come about through consensus building among various groups, which often includes resolving conflicts and expanding definitions of nationality, while excluding others.

The current unrest in these countries in transition reflects the nexus of two currents: the need of citizens to articulate their own narratives abetted by technology, and the mistrust that divides rulers and citizens as the original social contracts have lost their relevance and binding power. In the case of the US or anywhere else, the issue of how values are formed and sustained continues to be relevant as technology and external influences are redefining what matters in building national cohesion in a country.

In my next blog, I will look further into what tools can be useful in this emerging definition of “nation-building” and national values.

 

Featured image from the Immigrant Welcome Center

 

So What about Tunisia?

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Government Faces Legacy and Aspirational Challenges

Perhaps it was too much to expect, that Tunisia could overturn a decades long autocratic state, create inclusive political space and a responsive and inclusive economic strategy, and fight off external security threats, all in ten years. Regardless, one thing is clear, the majority of Tunisians are committed to peeling back years of political and economic decay and restructuring their society to be more inclusive and equitable, but how?

There are many analyses of where Tunisia is headed – it even comes up during US wine tastings of Tunisia’s finest (another one of those pesky Muslim countries that grows and enjoys wine!). And there is consensus on the key issues, but the how to get there and who will have to make the sacrifices engender a great deal of debate.

As I noted in my recent blog on Morocco, forming a national strategy is a bit easier when you have a king who reminds his citizens about their obligations towards each other and responsibilities within the context of government serving the people. Yet, even King Mohammed VI has expressed frustration with officials and cultural luddites that see the past as the only guide to the future. And he is giving the Parliament, civil society organizations, and NGOs plenty of space to figure out how democracy will work in Morocco and the burdens of not delivering.

So it is with Tunisia. Everyone is rooting for its success, but it is still fighting past demons of inequitable political and economic empowerment, structural discrimination against women and youth, entrenched elite power networks, and lack of robust economic growth to generate badly needed employment. Among the recent reports of note was published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace authored by Maha Yahya, after extensive research in the country. The report came out before the most recent government shake-up so it is useful to compare the recommendations in the report with the latest policies espoused by the government.

The major concern expressed in the report was the “The spreading disillusionment and alienation of large swaths of Tunisia society and their burgeoning misgivings about their prospects for a democratic and stable future.” Both the political and economic spheres are characterized as out of touch with young people, beholden to elites tied to the old regime, not rigorous in developing inclusive strategies to promote prosperity in the inland areas, and lacking long-term strategies to ensure equitable participation in the political and economic life of the country.

Relying on various polling data, Ms. Yahya points out that in 2014, 50% of Tunisians point to corruption, especially in the health services and police, as widespread, and close to 70% believe that the government is not proactive in combating corruption.

Similarly, it is not surprising that 80% of those 35-49 believe that strong economic growth should be the country’s first priority. Less than 9% of rural youth and 31% of urban youth expressed any confidence in the political system, while more than 80% believe that their local imam and religious organizations are credible. This has serious consequences. “In the 2014 elections 80% of 18-24 year olds did not vote in the parliamentary elections and largely abstained from the presidential election.”

As Nabil Fahmy, former Foreign Minister of Egypt recently noted, “Domestic social and sectarian grievances are still very much a part of Tunisian politics. The Tunisian government must tread carefully, and it cannot assume that all of its citizens are satisfied with the new arrangements.”

Recommendations

The primary recommendation made in the Carnegie study is that “Tunisian political elites need to rebuild the bonds of trust between the citizens and their state, strengthen democratic institutions, and uphold the principles of equity and social justice enshrined in the constitution.”

Voters waiting their turn. cartercenter.org

Voters waiting their turn. cartercenter.org

Regardless of the overarching concern with border security and counterterrorism, the country needs to continue to build on the 2012 National Council of Social Dialogue to build “a common platform for dialogue on basic principles among political parties, civil society organizations, and the private sector, and for reflecting the basic concerns of Tunisian citizens.”

The government has committed to far-ranging economic and political reforms, which need to be defined and sequenced with special attention to addressing regional disparities. An innovation in the MENA that definitely has applications throughout the region is the country-wide use of technology to link state and citizen. While Jordan and others have instituted some e-government programs to promote transparency and communications, the Tunisian goal is more robust and has the potential to generate effective bridges between youth and decision-makers.

It was recently pointed out by a former government minister that the country is moving to equip its people with 21st century technology, for example, promising internet access throughout the country by 2020, but the government is narrowly focused on issued defined in the 20th century using laws and institutions based on 19th century or before models…not, he fears, the most effective equation for success.

Some hard facts…the global economy is undergoing traumatic transitions wherein two-thirds of many jobs will disappear, reflecting increased computer-driven capabilities; and all countries are searching for strategies to prepare market-relevant workers. Put building walls and threatening companies aside. The disruption of digital technologies is here to stay. Some countries will remain competitive with human capital as long as the costs are competitive with new technologies, and that won’t last long.

The former minister suggests three points of impact on countries. First, the widespread availability of Internet, either as a government policy or as a result of market forces, will diminish the isolation of rural areas and forge bonds for mobilization and action that can be used for many purposes. Secondly, digital education will provide equality of access not only within a country but to the world of global classrooms, changing the way we value and accredit education and skills acquisition. National education policies will of necessity need to incorporate these opportunities. Also, for many reasons, technology will lead to greater government transparency as administrations forgo paper and rely more on computer-based cashless transactions, hopefully reducing at least one channel for corruption. All of these will change the forms of government structure and services in the coming generation and require a 21st century constitution reflecting the digital ties between state and citizens.

As Tunisia struggles to implement the pledges of the new government, it faces tremendous entrenched interests, from political and economic elites to trade and other unions protecting their turf. Exhorting Tunisians to do more with less will not save the day in the short term. If and how Tunisia succeeds may point the way ahead for other MENA and African countries.

 

image from shutterstock.com

Is Morocco On Course?

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Morocco’s second election since the adoption of the new constitution in 2011 resulted in the appointment of Abdelilah Benkirane as head of government, since his moderate Islamic party, PJD, had the highest number of votes. He is currently in the process of negotiating a governing coalition.

To outside observers, this seems consistent with the norms of a democratic election and so is not remarkable. However, it has a much larger significance for several reasons. First of all, the results reinforce the reality that free and fair elections are a consistent feature of political life in Morocco. There are winners and losers, and the process moves towards peaceful outcomes and transitions, if necessary. Secondly, the results indicated the rise of a strong party, the PAM, in opposition to the PJD-led government, another healthy sign of a society in which no one party has the monopoly on the national discourse. A third consideration is that King Mohammed VI showed his support for the electoral process by immediately appointing Benkirane to form a government, a critical step since PAM is known to be strong supporters of the palace.

Most important in the long run, the election underscores Morocco’s advance towards greater civic engagement and government accountability, a consistent theme in the King’s speeches, most recently to the opening session of Parliament, itself continually including more women and youth members. And this is probably Morocco’s strongest asset, the blending of the King’s leadership with a government supporting ongoing reforms that bring Morocco in line with human and civic values that solidify its democratic elements.

Intentions are certainly not enough. The reform agenda is still incomplete. And the gap between passing and implementing legislation cannot be ignored. The King himself complained about the inadequate understanding and enforcement of the Family Law (Moudawana), which provides significant policies for women’s empowerment. Judicial independence is still to be attained; the regionalization process devolving certain powers to local governments has yet to be fully codified with institutions and human resources prepared to implement it; and there are gaps in the educational infrastructure and approach that are an obstacle to fully developing the country’s human potential.

These issues and many more were raised during the election, another positive sign for Morocco’s democracy. Most importantly, aside from a defensible prohibition on pre-election polling (which can be appreciated given the cornucopia of contradictory results of the myriad polls in the US at this time), Morocco has achieved a seasoned election process. As the political parties mature and the number of serious parties shrinks from the 30+ in the recent election, the opportunities for more robust and vibrant political campaigns can be realized.

Casting Ballots are only one small piece of democracy

Casting ballots are only one small piece of democracy

Over the longer term, Morocco’s elections have another very important function – to build needed credibility in the political system. Some international election observers suggested that the turnout of 43%, while comparable to democratic elections elsewhere, may signal dissatisfaction with political parties. In fact, there are signs that the political parties are getting the message that defining positions, seeking to be more inclusive, and listening to constituencies are critical to their survival and success. Shake-ups are already underway in those parties that fared poorly. Another lesson learned in the recent elections.

Finally, another issue to be reckoned with is how legitimate political mechanisms, such as elections, contribute to Morocco’s internal coherence and ability to govern. The lack of credible mechanism is commonly mentioned an indicator of “state fragility.” As Thomas Carothers points out in a recent Policy Brief produced jointly by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Center for a New American Security, and the United States Institute for Peace, a common feature of fragile states is the systematic exclusion of its citizens. And the commonly defined prescription is “inclusive governance.”

If inclusiveness is the glue for building stability and the social contract, then Morocco is surely headed in the right direction. Elevating the Amazigh language as an official language for the government and educational system, broadening the role of civil society in in policy-making, and the King’s insistence, in his latest speech, that the government remain focused on providing quality services to the people – are all positive trends towards inclusion. People are already more empowered due to digital technologies; the government and institutions must keep pace develop credible and effective communications strategies in order to proactively discharge their responsibilities.

As the Policy Brief concludes:

When a government closes off space for independent civil society, it is creating a significant structural obstacle to achieving inclusive governance and positive state-society relations. An active, diverse civil society is the key to empowering marginalized groups, creating multiple channels for citizen participation, mediating diverse interests in a peaceful fashion, and in general creating state-society relations based on mutual communication, respect, and consensus.

This is where Morocco is headed and the country is well on its way.

Tough Love Economic News Requires Array of Strategies

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Jordanians are chattering about how the interim government is facing a number of difficult choices, none of which are of its own making. There is painful medicine for Jordanians in the prescription agreed with the IMF this past week, and people felt it immediately in prices paid for energy and power. No one argues that Jordan needs to take immediate steps to stop its slide into even lower growth, and there is little disagreement among leading Jordanian economists about how to move forward. However, medium and long term reforms will not do much to alleviate the pressure felt by consumers.

This is the dilemma facing oil producers and non-oil producers alike: How to bring about long-needed reforms that will ameliorate inadequate planning and decision-making by past leadership. One approach is HRH Mohammed bin Salman – high visibility, high energy, let’s take on entrenched interests approach while continuing to coddle citizens, which Saudi Arabia can afford to do.

On the other, there are Jordan and Morocco, balancing competing economic interests among potentially volatile political constituencies. Their way forward is constrained by internal and external factors that are not easily controlled. Morocco is in a more favorable neighborhood that encourages FDI and a more stable domestic political structure. Jordan faces both short and long-term challenges that are intertwined with all of their neighbors.

An article in The Jordan Times on the reaction to the IMF  tough love agreement noted, “This means there are more hard times ahead for Jordanians…the targets set by the government seem too difficult to achieve within the framework and the time schedule agreed on with the IMF.” The government is in a quandary inherited from the previous administration. With a public debt equal to 93% of the country’s gross domestic product, “and the stubborn problems of poverty and unemployment,” former finance minister Mohammad Abu Hammour blamed the fact that “There have been no real economic reforms over the past years in Jordan. Reforms should have been incremental, because they cannot be done overnight.”

The former minister said that the situation is already gloomy as exports dropped by 10% in 2015, foreign direct investments declined by 35%, and “unemployment rose to the unprecedented 14.2% mark.”

While Arab countries face similar dilemmas – a demographic bulge, inadequate education resulting in a mismatch between education and employment, and stagnant to slowing growth, the political dynamics of each country require avoiding a single remedy formula.

In Saudi Arabia the focus is on economic restructuring to promote jobs for men and women and soak up all those Saudis who are being educated abroad since there are few excellent universities in the Kingdom. This, of course, does not resolve the issue of those young people who are not university bound but still want jobs.

Jordan is different. It has no sovereign funds to bridge its economy to a brighter tomorrow. It hosts hundreds of thousands of refugees that have absorbed any spare capacity to deliver services. And it has to rely on infusions of foreign funds and loans to maintain its operations.

jordan flagSo what should Jordan’s government do? Given the obstacles of growing an economy burdened by providing services to citizens and refugees, here are three paths to follow, each with its own consequences. First, Jordan needs to cut government spending – always tough when there are so many vested interests in the current system. Secondly, Jordan needs to move more proactively to create a more business-friendly environment, promoting transparency, reducing corruption, and building public-private partnerships focused on short to medium term results.

One area that needs more emphasis is on convincing wealthy Jordanians at home and abroad to make significant job-creating investments in their country. Real estate aside, there must be more productive sectors for Jordanian, and Moroccan investors. Jordan and Morocco have wealthy citizens that could contribute to the country’s growth if they were incentivized properly. Investment capital is notoriously risk averse so this will take the most persuasive power of both monarchs.

Local investment funds, properly incentivized, can be quite powerful in the near term for targeting job growth for unemployed university graduates as well as those in the vocational/technical skills groups. When under- and unemployed youth believe that they can get jobs with wages for more than basic necessities, they will take advantage of many programs available to equip them for jobs in commerce and industry…but they must see a way forward.

Jordanian economist Hosam Ayesh summed it up best when he said “Increasing prices of water and electricity as of next year will push up the prices of many commodities. Citizens are always asked to tighten the belt, but shortly, there will be no belt to tighten.” Long days ahead.

What Latin America’s Populist Experiences can Teach Middle East Reformers

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Enabling Grassroots Capitalism is Key for Restructuring Societies Equitably

Roger Noriega and Andres Martinez-Fernandez argue in a recent article that populism failed as an economic growth strategy in Latin America because it lacked essential qualities such as transparency and sustainability. Rather than enabling citizens to acquire skills that would equip them to achieve a better quality of life, it perpetuated a system of handouts and elitism that in reality keeps the poor in their historically disadvantaged status.

To Ambassador Noriega, who has decades of experience in the region, revolution and reform based on slogans and distribution of rewards has shown its deficiencies. The introductory summary notes that “Grassroots capitalism is the only solution to poverty, empowering poor and marginalized citizens to make them stakeholders in their country’s economic access.” And that “Policymakers also must address the systematic barriers to equitable growth, including corruption, stifling bureaucracy, crime, and violence.”

This could easily serve as a description of the dysfunctional social and economic development policies plaguing oil-rich and not-so countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The past decade has been unkind to those countries long attached to socialist and paternalistic policies that treat people as clients and beneficiaries rather than citizens valued for their participation in the country’s future.

Reforms that inch a country closer to a citizen-centric model hold the most promise for a holistic model of human development, one that includes capacity-building for institutions as well as individuals. When looking at the MENA region to identify is countries that, like Latin America, are in a transition from a top-down system of economic and political empowerment to something more interactive and less prescriptive, where does one begin?

Morocco can serve as a template for measuring intentions vs. results, since King Mohammed VI is committed to redefining relations between people and government. His early reform of the family law, transparent handling of the abuses of the previous regime, and reduction of the role of the palace as a key economic engine in the economy demonstrate his understanding that Morocco must change if it is to progress.

The challenge of course, as described in the article, is that grassroots capitalism is not a mere refinement of traditional capitalist models. Rather, it empowers and enables people through institutional respect for rule of law, property rights, relevant training and education, and support for individual enterprise and entrepreneurship.

The “emphasis must also be placed on internal reforms that speak to peoples’ priorities…and cultivate a popular consensus around a new brand of grassroots capitalism: policies that generate sustainable growth with free-market solutions; consciously extend economic opportunity and political freedom to the very poor; generate decent jobs and social mobility; incentivize entrepreneurship to unlock the potential of those outside the formal economy; and fortify the rule of law to fight that corruption, crime, and violence that debilitates societies.”

Morocco has started on that path: the National Initiative for Human Development (INDH); educational reform and investments in training and entrepreneurship; advanced regionalization; and improvements in childcare, women’s rights, and equitable access to basic infrastructure are propelling it in the right direction.

The hovering questions “Is there enough time,” and “Will the country stay the course,” can only be answered with confidence if the results of the country’s growth and enhancements to personal and collective rights are shared equitably. A diverse society like Morocco has much at risk without a shared vision of what Morocco will be and how all will benefit. This is where the king’s role as enabler-in-chief is so critical – generating national buy-in to a vision of an equitable, just, inclusive, and fair society that takes none for granted, at any level.

How Can the US Help?

While small government is a virtue to free-market advocates, progress is not free. As Noriega maintains, “If leaders committed to democratic capitalism are to succeed in winning and maintaining public confidence, they must attach greater value to poor and marginalized citizens and integrate them into plans for a better future.” And here is where the US is already helping, by enabling Moroccans to have a voice in their local governments.

counterpart internationalA recent USAID grant to Counterpart International has set up a Civil Society Strengthening Program (CSSP) to be piloted in two cities in Morocco to help, as their information sheet mentions, both “government and civil society work together to ensure a more inclusive government that represents all Morocco’s citizens.” In the northern city of Tetouan, the project works with the Municipal Council on implementing a three-year action plan to “strengthen local Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and improve their participation in public affairs.”

The President of the municipality, Mr. Mohamed Idaomar, points out that there is “a real need for the involvement of an effective civil society in order to represent the concerns and the expectations of citizens and to identify priorities of the municipal action plan.”

In a similar way, the agreement between CSSP and the municipality of Temara “focuses on creating a consultative body to represent civil society, promote gender equality and equal opportunities for all citizens, and hold communication meetings with citizens.” USAID will provide technical and logistical support for the municipality to build its capacity for organizing training sessions for municipal staff on how to improve communications with citizens and CSOs.”

While these are small steps, taken together, they continue to move Morocco towards a more responsive, equitable, and just society, based on all hands working together.

Working Through Challenges, Morocco Maintains Focus on Progress

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At a time when countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as well as the EU and US are struggling to balance civil liberties and heightened security measures, it is helpful to look at other factors contributing to a country’s stability and progress. This was the overall theme in articles published by www.the-report.com earlier this year, in conjunction with the International New York Times.

The series featured interviews with leaders in Morocco’s public and private sector, and articles covering some of the more visible development projects that are changing the face and tempo of the country.

For example, the interview with the Head of Government, Abdelilah Benkiran, provided a much needed antidote to the fixation on the role of religion in the Islamic-led government. Disagreements both major and minor (read abortion and gay rights to ads for alcoholic beverages on television) take up most of the media space with little insight, in the English-language press, about the PJD’s overall philosophy of governance. One message that sounded almost libertarian: “I believe that the government should disengage itself from all of the sectors that the private sector or civil society would take better charge of,” says Benkiran, “and refocus the available resources towards the citizens, the sectors and the regions that need them most.”

Given the current contentious climate in Morocco over a new media/press law, rights for juveniles, treatment of immigrants and migrants, enhanced rights for women, implementation of programs that equalize treatment of the Amazigh language, and the place of English in the educational system, recognizing private-public sector partnerships in concrete terms may go a long way to building consensus on policies to move forward.

Another article in the report looked at education and progress in economic development, which are closely linked because of the challenge to Morocco’s educational system to turn out qualified human resources. As the report notes, “With top-down educational reform now the focus of ambitious investment programs to transform the labour market, the country is ready to realise its potential both as regional hub and global competitor.” International donors, various ministries, NGOs, and civil society top the list of major players in redefining and empowering education and training in Morocco.

The series also surveyed efforts by the government to improve the quality of its workforce development strategies. “A major element in delivering Vision 2030, a roadmap to wholesale education improvements, are efforts to broaden Morocco’s talent pool via a significant increase in the number of scholarships and closer alignment with vocational training to better prepare its graduates for the job market.” Only by addressing the education sector broadly, from improving retention rates after primary school to improving the quality of products generated by universities, will concrete progress be achieved.

This raises additional concerns beyond the various players in the training and educational system, such as providing the technical infrastructure to support efforts that sustain institutional players and are also vital to the continued growth of entrepreneurism. “With the National Broadband Plan aiming to achieve broadband coverage for 100 percent of the population by 2022, Morocco’s nascent tech start-ups are ready to rise.” Extensive broadband is essential for the growth of technology and knowledge industries as well as its role as an enabler for existing industries to retool and reach new markets.

“Today, Morocco is the continent’s second-largest pharmaceutical exporter, with seven to eight percent of production now leaving the country, largely southward.  Following the expansion of its …state-of-the art manufacturing plant, however, Laprophan is looking not just to boost exports to Africa but also to the Middle East, Europe and the Americas.”

Morocco’s story would not be complete without acknowledging its vision to become a regional leader. “Today, although there is still much to be done, the country has nevertheless achieved the privileged status of a stable, peaceful Arab nation, governed smoothly by a democratically elected Islamist party. The successful transition from traditional kingdom to a modern global player, envied throughout the Arab and Muslim world, means that today more than ever Morocco is a key force in the region.”

The article focusing on Africa points out that “Numerous institutional and societal advances have laid the foundation for this stability, while economic reforms have succeeded in improving the day-to-day life of the Moroccan people and positioned the country comfortably and sustainably in the global arena.”

When looking south, one can’t help but be impressed with the results of King Mohammed VI’s “economic diplomacy.” “Today, 55 percent of Royal Air Maroc’s traffic goes to African countries, making Casablanca a regional hub. Morocco is also now the best-connected African country by sea routes, according to a United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report, and has seen a 20 percent increase in 2015 in the number of containers going through its ports.”

In a related interview, US Ambassador to Morocco Dwight Bush, provided three reasons why he is optimistic about Morocco. The first is its open and progressive business climate. The second is security throughout the country that has resulted “principally because you have a moderate, progressive Islamic state headed by King Mohammed VI who has a vision of his country, his people and their participation both internally and on the continent to try to help other countries to come along as well.”

The third item for Ambassador Bush mentions is Morocco’s political progress. “From a political perspective, Morocco has been ahead of many others in the region.” He sums up his view in what is a fitting conclusion to the series. “The hope is that Morocco continues to show by example how to work effectively to move the country forward, recognizing that you have needs for security as well as liberties and freedoms. And so in addition to our commercial and investment orientation, we work with the Moroccans to expand civil society and political institutions.”

It is a series worth exploring in detail.

To Smooth the Storm, Morocco Pushes On

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Articles, favorable and not, continually assess Morocco’s strategic responses to the Arab Uprisings, which King Mohammed VI took on head first by quickly promoting a new Constitution (2011); holding elections for a new Parliament to be led by the party with the most seats, in this case the Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party (PJD); and speaking out often about the need for more citizen participation in the affairs of government. He has also reiterated his commitment to better education outcomes, more equitable economic development, and greater personal and institutional freedoms (e.g., for the media and the judiciary).

Those who defend the regime say this process began with the installation in the late 1990s of an opposition leader as Prime Minister and awareness by King Hassan II, the current King’s father, that unchallenged royal “business as usual” would not survive another decade. They blame the slow pace of change on the birthing pains of a parliamentary democracy, where every current has the ability to prolong debate and question ministers.

Critics of the regime, both Moroccan and otherwise, are of two minds—either the government has been co-opted and still remains too friendly to the royal palace, slowing down needed reforms, or it is a conspiracy in which a slow pace maintains stability and reforms that threaten existing power centers are stalled. They point to the level of human rights abuses, negative government responses to criticism at home and abroad, and lack of large-scale job creation as indicators of failures.

The reality fluctuates between “the government is beholden to the palace and won’t rock the boat” and “the King is a visionary who supports, and indeed calls for, more progress than is being made.” Realistically, the question is: what can Morocco do and what is the reality behind its moderate and mostly successful leadership in the region?

A difficult yet necessary point of departure are the redlines in Moroccan discourse: the monarchy, territorial integrity (read: the Western Sahara/South/Southern Provinces), and Islam. Negative comments on any of these issues have led to bloggers being jailed, newspapers being fined and harassed, and strong criticism levied by government spokespersons.

How does Morocco’s handling of these core topics contribute to understanding the debate around the country’s progress?

Let’s begin with the monarchy. The King still is the symbolic and real leader in military, political, and religious affairs. But the new constitution gave real powers to the Parliament, which is still evolving as an institutional force. Intense debate and discourse take place, and the media follows and stokes partisans on all sides of the issues. So while Parliament might only get a grade of C+ or C-, it is far more decisive than similar bodies in any of its neighbors.

Which brings us to the Sahara. Morocco remains steadfast in its claim to the South, committing billions of dollars to its development in the next 10 years. Some observers note a level of heightened security, some even call it excessive, when it comes to dealing with outsiders such as human rights organizations, left-wing European politicians, and NGOs with similar orientations. This is a difficult challenge for the government, which is working to balance safeguarding freedoms of speech and assembly with progress in implementing regionalization.

Islam is a special category in Morocco’s heritage. As a descendent of the Prophet Muhammed, the King has special obligations towards the religion. In response to critics who challenge the King’s religious role, one could ask: Would they prefer an Iranian or Saudi-style religious domain? The King’s promotion of Maliki Islam’s moderate principles throughout Africa and elsewhere, his exemplary handling of issues regarding the Jewish heritage of Morocco, and his continued interest in the status of Jerusalem are only some of Morocco’s assets when it comes to Islam.

Much has been made of Morocco’s imam and mourchidates training programs to counter violent extremism and the King’s promotion of women’s rights. Using Islam as a touchstone for Morocco’s progress illustrates the King’s awareness of the sensitive ground on which he is treading.

Morocco has much to offer, not as a model, but as a workshop in which democratic and social development challenges are being articulated, refined, and implemented. How it succeeds, in light of both external and internal obstacles, depends largely on the King’s ability to inspire Parliament and the Moroccan people to adopt progressive steps that enhance and enable the future. If Parliament takes advantage of the constitution and gradually builds an institutional foundation for government, and political parties mature as issue-driven entities, Morocco will succeed where others are failing.

Morocco, Elections, and Hi Tech – What is the Common Link?

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It’s election season in Morocco, and the political parties are working hard to get out the vote. What makes these elections so special is that they are the first to be held under the 2011 Constitution’s provision for enhanced regionalization, by which local and regional authorities will have new budgetary and administrative powers previously held by the central government. In addition, for the first time, representatives of the regional councils will be directly elected, giving their constituents a stronger voice in managing local issues.

According to local observers, the Ministry of the Interior, which oversees municipal and regional matters, has developed an innovative text messaging form to link voters to their designated polling stations, ending the confusion of previous years where printed lists at each station had to be consulted for the right locations.

In addition, the political parties hunting for success on September 4th in the more than 31,000 seats being contested locally and 678 seats on the regional councils are using social media widely to spread their appeals. Given that there are at least 30 registered political parties vying for seats, it is no surprise that the ratio of candidates to positions is quite high – more than 4:1 in local elections and more than 10:1 for the regional councils. Parties have created on-line videos on YouTube, are live-streaming rallies and events, and broadening their outreach beyond their traditional districts.

One of the factors piquing voter interest is a new on-line program that brings questions from citizens directly to members of parliament, eventually to be extended to other elected officials. Developed by Andrew Mandelbaum, formerly of the US Institute for Peace and the National Democratic Institute, who speaks French, Arabic, and Moroccan colloquial Arabic, the site comes out of his long experience in governance programs in Morocco. He is concerned that “Citizens really rarely see a member of parliament actually answer to their needs and they have very few ways to transmit their needs to elected officials.” ­­­­

nouabook1Given his concern with this “trust gap,” he teamed up with Hind Kabaj, a Moroccan with previous US experience, to create SimSim-Participation Citoyenne’s website Nouabook.com, which means “My MPs” in the local dialect. To date, they have been able to introduce this free service throughout Morocco, garnering hundreds of inquiries that were transmitted directly to the MPs. What was surprising was the number of MPs who have responded and recognize the value of this form of citizen engagement.

While democracy is definitely in its developmental stage in Morocco, and there are few predictions about voter turnout or outcomes, there is a growing sense that Moroccans will heed the King’s recent call that “Citizens should vote for competent, credible candidates, who are committed to serving the public good…Voting is a right and a national duty, a major responsibility that has to be shouldered. It is a tool in your hands; you either use it to change the daily management of your affairs or to maintain the status quo, good or bad.”

Strong words that underscore the King’s commitment to proactively moving Morocco forward on its transition as a liberalizing democracy.