From winning to working: challenges of moving beyond the Arab uprisings

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I must admit that sometimes I am a bit confused by how some very good people frame their analyses of MENA issues. A recent case in point is a blog by Frederic Hof, one of my favorite writers on the Levant. He writes that the major question for the Arabs is “what will follow the Ottoman system as the true source of political legitimacy? The emerging answer is that for governments to be legitimate, they must ultimately derive their powers from the consent of the governed. This, in my view, is the meaning of the Arab Spring.”

Well, historical antecedents aside…that is a useful, as yet un-validated, position. He goes on to write, “Since the downfall of the four hundred-year empire only ninety years ago, Arabs have struggled to find the location of the stabilizing political legitimacy that once resided in the system of the Sultan-Caliph. Legitimacy has nothing to do with whether people approve or disapprove of the performance of a particular leader or government. It has everything to do with the right of a government to govern, whether it does so well or poorly. It is the system that is important; not the person.”

To speak of the Ottoman system or any of its predecessors as having the “right” to govern the Arab lands any more than other colonial powers turns history a bit on its head. However, his point that “it is the system that is important” is a hypothesis worth testing under the current tempest of transitions in the MENA region.

Perhaps the first consideration is where political legitimacy resides. Since the only clear example of retained legitimacy in North Africa after the Arab uprisings is Morocco, which was not ruled by the Ottomans and certainly did not cede legitimacy to the French and Spanish occupations, the legitimacy question is more applicable to Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. None of these countries yet has a constitution as the basis for governing, and so the jury is still out on the “system” of governance. In the contestation between Islamic parties and their “secular” counterparts, it is unclear where the mantle of leadership will be awarded by “the consent of the governed.” Those who are not fans of the Islamic government in Egypt should as well be concerned about the “tyranny of the majority” from the left or the right.

In a recent Viewpoints paper produced by the Wilson Center, Marina Ottaway analyzes the steps secular parties can take to be more competitive in Tunisia and Egypt. Her central theme is that “the secular opposition…has been unable to develop a clear message, build viable political parties, or overcome its fragmentation.” It is a telling assessment when combined with a recent remark by an Arab head of state visiting Washington, DC, who said that “there is no Arabic or Hebrew word for strategy,” focusing on the need for Arab countries to consult more seriously on complex issues such as Syria and the peace process.

While it may be that political leadership in these countries is still in flux, the bottom line, according to Ottaway is, “The transitions that started with the 2011 uprisings will not lead to a democratic outcome unless a better balance is established between Islamist and secular forces…The real issue is that democracy does not depend on the behavior of one party or faction, but on a pluralistic and balanced political spectrum. And that balance must be established in the electoral arena.” [emphasis added] And here is the challenge of history: How do societies wherein political, religious, ethnic, and socio-economic differences have been exploited for generations regard others as fellow seekers for justice and equality? How do elections, which historically have been engineered to satisfy narrowly defined constituencies, all at once become an expression of the will of the people, of “the consent of the governed?” How do issues of emerging political identities avoid being strapped with religious or personality-driven labels that stereotype their agendas before they are subject to the realities of the political marketplace of negotiation?

Ottaway offers several prescriptions to secular parties on how to capture the high ground in the political landscape: develop a clear message; develop an organization; and unite their leadership. She points out that the Islamic parties in Egypt and Tunisia have yet to articulate clear economic platforms that define their actions for governing. The secular parties “have also failed so far to suggest their own remedies in a way designed to gain broad support.” Let me suggest that perhaps this is an area where the Morocco experience may be helpful. The government’s economic plans are well articulated and targeted but have foundered in winning Parliamentary approval. At least the people know what they voted for, even if it has not yet been delivered.

Ottoway believes that the lack of cohesive secular political parties reflects, in many ways, the “social distance that separates the secular leadership from much of the population.” Again, when I look at Morocco, where the PJD and Istiqlal parties have maintained solid support among their members, they stand in contrast to less cohesive parties elsewhere. As Ottaway remarks, “….they need to decide that the non-glamorous task of building machines is worth the effort and they do not appear to have done so thus far.” This is a lesson across the Maghreb where public patience should not be taken for granted.

Finally, there is the issue of leadership, where “Individuals who in theory share the same ideals of a democratic country that protects human rights and individual freedoms, respects diversity, and takes its place among modern nations are showing little inclination to work together for the common goal.” It is counterintuitive for politicians, who seek the limelight to illuminate their positions, to defer to others and trust in coalition-building in which they are not prominently featured. Many people in the region have long lamented the lack of an Arab Nelson Mandela, but hand-wringing does not enlarge the capacity for thoughtful and effective leadership in the region.

As the Arab peoples embark on perhaps their first realistic opportunity in modern times to own their political legitimacy, the first step may be to actually build a consensus of the governed rather than proclaiming their differences.

Repairing the neglect of workforce development in the MENA

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The World Bank has issued its fourth volume in the series Jobs for Shared Prosperity – Time for Action in the Middle East and North Africa. Well over 300 pages, the study provides its five main messages separately for those who need a super condensed summary. Reading through the messages, I noticed how clear it is that very few results can be achieved without strategies that integrate the resources and talents of the public and private sectors. Drawing on my experiences across the MENA region, there is much to be gained from cross-border sharing of best practices regardless of the differences in the economic profiles of the countries. Let’s look at the region in terms of the key messages of the study.

Message #1: Labor markets in the MENA make poor use of the available human talent and resources, thus inhibiting the economic potential of countries and people in the region. Current political dislocations aside, Arab countries, like much of the developing world, made post-independence choices that centralized economic growth around government institutions. Despite dramatic changes in society since then in population, education, middle class composition, ethnic/minority/gender issues, global market standards, etc., governments were slow to accommodate to the realities of today’s economies. Concurrently, vested interests working with their government counterparts too often dominated the private sector. This cronyism added to the obstacles inhibiting progressive economic policies. Human capital was collateral damage in this scenario since labor had little impact on employment standards in a system of regulated government-social services and little flexibility in labor markets.

Message #2: Change the rules to create a dynamic private sector that capitalizes on the full range of the region’s human capital. Government business regulations have been slow to shed their opacity; end interference in the business of business, and equitably protect the rights of owners and employees. A major incentive towards transparency is that all MENA countries require FDI, which requires attention to rule of law, accountability by government officials, and awareness of environmental impact. The WTO, bilateral trade agreements, and a host of multilateral treaties have helped shine a light on changes that must be made for an economy to be competitive.

Message #3: Let skills flow into productive private sector jobs by realigning employment conditions in both the private and the public sector and rethinking labor regulation. Lower the barriers holding back women who want to work. MENA governments can no longer be the employers of first or last resort. Coddling public sector employees in non-productive jobs limits economic efficiencies and distorts opportunities. Efforts to enhance the employment of youth and women will be advanced through adopting unemployment policies that enable transitions to the labor force and access to services that respect the needs of working families.

Message #4: Make young people employable by closing information gaps, improving quality and relevance of skills, and partnering with the private sector in training. These steps have become the mantra of US, international and local government programs to advance employment among young people. An interesting corollary to this focus on training programs is providing recognition to those who have acquired skills informally, through on-the-job experience. Morocco is piloting a program called Validation des Acquis de l’Experience Professionelle (VAEP) to provide accreditation to workers who can demonstrate proficiencies that qualify them for advanced positions. Piloted through a cooperative agreement with the French government, VAEP originally started with the building trades in 2008, was expanded to textiles and clothing in 2011, and is poised to move into hospitality and meat processing. The bottom line is that professional skills validation through transparent proficiency examinations will “make it possible for employees to obtain diplomas or certificates outside of their initial schooling,” according to the article in Le Soir.

Message #5: Use short-term interventions to respond to immediate needs while building credibility and consensus for medium-term, game changing reforms. Demands for jobs, training, market-focused education, and transparency will not be satiated by government promises. Public-private partnerships can be a critical vehicle for identifying quick start-up projects and programs that support jobs for those marginalized and underutilized in current labor markets. Government subsidies for employment can be used more efficiently when tied to needs identified by current and future employers. The success of longer-term reforms of labor regulations, jobs training and education, gender-related policies, and workplace health and safety rules can be facilitated by piloting initial efforts at these reforms in short-term programs that deliver jobs and generate data that supports new policies.

The World Bank’s Jobs for Shared Prosperity, like the Arab Human Development Reports of a decade ago, offers a serious and methodical critique of how to take an under-performing region and enhance its prospects by freeing its most abundant resource – its people – from antiquated and ineffective labor constraints. Empowering employees is at the heart of building local stability and prosperity in the MENA, and it is an agenda that can no longer be postponed.

Managing the dynamics of Morocco’s reforms, can a tidal wave be tamed?

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“…the transformation of a country is no easy matter…What we take for granted—a concept of citizenship, respect for a constitution, competent governance and an independent judiciary—have to, in large part, be started from scratch…That requires immense patience…and…requires a long- term commitment by the West…” So wrote Jennifer Rubin in her daily blog, Right Turn: “The Arab Spring: No walk in the park.” She had just spoken to a Moroccan thought leader, Professor Rachid Benmokhtar Benabdallah, who was in Washington, DC to speak at the German Marshall Fund on reform in Morocco and the Economic, Social, and Environment Council (CESE) project on regionalization in the Saharan provinces.

Professor Benabdallah and I had several opportunities during his visit to discuss the prospects for reforms in Morocco and his degree of optimism regarding the outcomes. “People who have responsibility for change have to have some pessimism to make them work harder to achieve the right outcomes,” he said, “With the right tools and training, we can do a lot in Morocco but it is not easy and it is not quick.” He pointed out that the baseline for today’s steps forward is the report on the first 50 years of Morocco’s human development prepared at the behest of King Mohammed VI. It was this report that laid out the challenges facing the country as it develops a more equitable and inclusive society. It was a bombshell, similar in impact to the United Nations Development Programme’s Arab National Human Development Reports, both of which provided a framework for analyzing the achievements and deficiencies in the Arab world.

Professor Benabdallah pointed out that the 50 years assessment was much broader in scope than the UNDP studies and provided the logic for the National Initiative for Human Development (INDH), which is Morocco’s roadmap for eliminating poverty, building sustainable economic growth in poor and marginalized communities, and enhancing local governance and inclusion. After achieving very positive results in its first phase (2005-2010), INDH was renewed in 2011, dealing with many of the issues raised during the Arab uprisings. This, according to Professor Benabdallah, is the nexus of the current challenge – how to learn from the results accomplished so far to accelerate efforts that respond to the legitimate aspirations of those who are pessimistic about the government’s efforts to tackle serious problems in employment, education, social services, housing, transparency, and governance.

As a result of INDH and Morocco’s vibrant civil society, a strong base exists from which to move forward. A key ingredient is the government’s role in enabling local communities and leadership to generate the inclusive, kinetic projects that solve problems and build sustainable alternatives. The Professor was quite adamant about the importance of capacity and institution building as core principles of human development. He believes that communities that demonstrate their commitment to economic and social progress should have resources to support their strategies. According to Benabdallah, democracy doesn’t come as a result of political will alone; it requires institutions, capabilities, normative values, and a shared sense of purpose. This is the strongest lesson of INDH. “Communities and individuals have acquired new ‘value and dignity’ and adopted a ‘better look on the future’,” says INDH National Coordinator Nadira El Guermai. “They only needed someone to help them realize it – and this is an important part of INDH. This allows the person to say, I am someone, and able.”

Where to begin? Families, schools, and jobs are the most important facilitators of civic values, citizenship, and participation in society. The future is constrained when people are marginalized, when young people carry the twin burdens of distrust of institutions and few market-ready skills, if courts and administrative bodies do not implement laws to protect women and girls, and when social biases still affect someone’s job opportunities. Professor Benabdallah believes that the US and other countries can be “part of the solution” by making available best practices, technologies, and strategies for local governance that provide Moroccan communities with tools to engage each other and centers of power. He is bullish on Morocco’s future because the majority of Moroccan people are looking for change that is inclusive and sustainable. If the tools are coming and the reforms are moving forward, then sufficient time and resources to sustain reforms are the key.

Adding value to a traditional sector – Morocco farms on!

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Quite often, when observers look at economic development in emerging markets, the emphasis is on expanding IT-related projects, renewable energies, and other sectors that are not at the whim of climatic factors. Yet in countries such as Morocco, where there is sufficient rain to support a robust agricultural sector, there is much to be said for making food commodities and value-added food products a priority. Agriculture absorbs upwards of 40 percent of the workforce, contributing 14-20 percent of GDP in a good year. The country has invested heavily in water-management projects (dams and reservoirs) to try to control its resources more efficiently.

In 2008, Morocco launched its Plan Maroc Vert, to encourage investments in and best practices by both large and small farms. As noted in Plan Maroc Vert’s website, agriculture:

  • Contributes 19 percent of the GNP, 15 percent from crops and 4 percent from agro-industry
  • Employs more than 4 million rural inhabitants, including 100,000 jobs in agro-industry
  • Provides revenues for 80 percent of Morocco’s 14 million rural dwellers
  • Provides food security for the more than 32 million Moroccan people.

Given the vital importance of this sector, it is not surprising that Morocco has made agriculture a core component of its economic growth strategy. In addition to Plan Maroc Vert, the National Human Development Initiative (INDH) includes marginalized urban and rural areas under its broad umbrella targeting communities for development programs. And the international community has responded favorably to these programs. Through the 2007 Millennium Challenge Compact with Morocco, the largest awarded by the US at the time, $328.7 million was allocated to “stimulate growth in the agricultural sector and reduce volatility of agricultural production including funds to:

  • Rehabilitate existing olive trees and expand production of olives and almond trees;
  • Move small farms from high water-use, low-value cereal grains to low water-use, high-value and drought resistant commercial fruit tree species; and
  • Support improvements to increase irrigation efficiency and productivity of olive and date trees.”

Similar support is being provided by the World Bank in the form of last month’s $203 million Development Policy Loan, the second in a series designed to support “key reforms envisaged in the national Plan to strengthen domestic markets, help small farmers, enhance agricultural services, and improve the delivery of irrigation water.” This is in addition to two grants already awarded from the World Bank’s Global Environment Facility. The first—$4.35 million—from the Special Climate Change Fund, is for integrating climate change adaptation measures to build resilience to climate shocks. The second—$6.4 million—will help small farmers implement land and biodiversity conservation measures in marginal areas so that agricultural intensification can be compatible with environmental preservation. And just this week, President Francois Hollande of France announced a grant of $26 million to support the second plank of the Plan Maroc Vert, which emphasizes achieving economies of scale by aggregating small farms into more competitive and efficient units for production, processing, and distribution. More details of this ambitious and essential plan are available at www.ada.gov.ma.

I am writing about agriculture in Morocco to create more awareness of how farming is critical for creating jobs that Moroccans need, and not just to keep farm families engaged. Morocco is the world’s largest exporter of phosphates, critical to the glob Adding value to a traditional sector – Morocco farms on!al food industry. It sits at the northwest corner of the Sahara, a key corridor for distribution of foodstuffs throughout west and central Africa. Its least developed areas are rural communities with poorly utilized agricultural and grazing land due to traditional inheritance practices and lack of recording and registration of land titles. It is not surprising that these areas have the highest rates of illiteracy, poorest health statistics, and the least developed infrastructure. Morocco is using an arsenal of programs and projects to turn this around, but the core necessity is to make the agricultural sector more productive, profitable, and market efficient—moving from commodities to value-added products.

There are a wide range of applications of ITC technology that will benefit a more rational agro-industry, from water conservation and irrigation techniques to better use of seeds, fertilizers, and crop rotation. And this hasn’t even begun to mine the real opportunities in producing downstream value-added food stuffs that will move seasonal workers into more permanent employment. The chart below indicates that Morocco is doing well exporting basic food commodities. It is reasonable to assume that its farmers will achieve much higher profit margins if they move further up the value chain towards higher-value products.

Image The US should continue to support the growth, diversification, and maturation of the agri-industry in Morocco through stepped up efforts to increase participation of the US private sector. Creating more jobs, developing more profitable products, streamlining farm to table distribution, and global marketing are obvious business opportunities for US companies that have generations of experience in building a vibrant agricultural sector. The timing is on target for both countries to realize greater benefits in strengthening ties in this sector.